钢矿周度报告2025-06-09：宏观预期回暖，黑色低位反弹-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - For steel, the spot price fluctuates while the futures price rebounds from the low. Supply sees a decline in blast furnace and electric furnace production. Inventory shows a slowdown in building material destocking and an accumulation of plate stock. Demand weakens for both building materials and plates. Profits remain high for blast furnaces but narrow for electric furnaces. The basis changes little, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities. Overall, the supply - demand structure of steel will weaken next week, and the black market is expected to return to a weak downward state. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view and take partial profits when new lows are reached [6]. - For iron ore, the ore price fluctuates with the futures price rebounding from the low. Supply increases in Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals. Demand drops as blast furnace production declines. Inventory decreases slightly at ports and among downstream users. Shipping prices rise. The spread on the futures market narrows, and the coke - ore ratio increases. The supply improves while the demand slows down, and the industry fundamentals are still weak. Next week, it may be dragged down by the weakening of steel products and return to a downward trend. The strategy is to maintain a short - selling view, add short positions on rebounds, and hold them in the medium - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The futures price of rebar rebounds after hitting a new low this year, with the 10 - contract rising 14 to 2975. The spot price fluctuates, with rebar in East China at 3120 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week [11]. 3.1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production: The operating rate of 247 blast furnaces is 83.56%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.06 percentage points year - on - year. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.51 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output is 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week and up 6.05 tons year - on - year [14]. - Electric furnace production: The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week - on - week and up 5.67 percentage points year - on - year. Short - process steel production shows signs of active production cuts due to difficulties in scrap collection and weak demand [20]. - Product output: Rebar production decreases by 7.05 tons, mainly due to rolling - line maintenance and the diversion of hot - metal to profiles and billets. Hot - rolled coil production increases by 9.1 tons to 328.75 tons, mainly in East and North China [23]. 3.1.3 Demand - Building materials: From May 28 to June 3, the national cement outbound volume is 315.7 tons, down 9.8% week - on - week and 25.4% year - on - year. The direct supply of infrastructure cement is 173 tons, down 7.0% week - on - week and 6.5% year - on - year. The demand drops significantly due to the college entrance examination and rainy weather [26]. - Plates: In May 2025, the monthly average working hours of major construction machinery products are 84.5 hours, down 3.86% year - on - year and 6.25% month - on - month. The monthly start - up rate is 59.5%, down 5.01 percentage points year - on - year and 2.45 percentage points month - on - month. The internal and external demand of the manufacturing industry weakens [29]. 3.1.4 Profit - Blast furnace: The profitability rate of steel mills is 58.87%, flat week - on - week and up 6.06 percentage points year - on - year. Blast furnace profits are relatively high due to coke price concessions [34]. - Electric furnace: The overall profitability of independent electric arc furnace steel mills continues to decline. The proportion of slightly profitable steel mills decreases by 4.13% week - on - week, and the proportion of loss - making steel mills increases by 8.26% week - on - week. Electric furnaces are basically in the red during peak - power periods, and the short - process loss ratio is high [34]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar: Mill inventory decreases by 1.6 tons, and social inventory decreases by 8.97 tons. The destocking speed slows down, in line with the off - season characteristics [38]. - Hot - rolled coil: Mill inventory increases by 1.33 tons, mainly in North China. Total inventory increases by 6.5 tons, corresponding to increased production and weakening demand [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 10 - contract is 165, narrowing 4 from last week. It is recommended to take profits on previous positive - arbitrage positions around 100 and continue to pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread is 4, with the inversion situation reversing completely compared to last week. The near - term price is expected to fall due to the off - season, and the far - term price also faces callback risks, so the far - term price inversion cannot last [49]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread - The futures spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 117, widening 2 from last week. The spot spread is 90, widening 60 from last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and there is no obvious driving force for further narrowing, so no operation is recommended [52]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore rebounds from the low, with the 09 - contract rising 5.5 to 707.5. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rises 1 to 733 yuan/ton. Market sentiment recovers slightly, and downstream users replenish stocks normally [57]. 3.2.2 Supply - Global shipments: The current global iron ore shipment volume is 3431 tons, up 242 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 3209.4 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 55 tons compared to May last year [60]. - Australia and Brazil shipments: The weekly average shipment volume from Australia is 1852.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 17 tons compared to May last year. The weekly average from Brazil is 793.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 69 tons compared to May last year [63]. - Arrivals: The arrival volume at 47 ports is 2597.4 tons, up 253 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 2485.26 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 25 tons compared to May last year [66]. 3.2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills is 241.8 tons per day, down 0.11 tons per day week - on - week, up 13.36 tons per day compared to the beginning of the year, and up 6.05 tons per day year - on - year [69]. - Speculative demand: The daily average port transaction volume is 90 tons, down 2.8 tons week - on - week. Due to continuous hot - metal production cuts and weakening demand, the downstream purchasing intensity is slow [72]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory at 47 ports is 14400.31 tons, down 69 tons week - on - week, down 1210 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 1137 tons lower than the same period last year [75]. - Downstream inventory: The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2532.11 tons, down 66.98 tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption is 115.57 tons, down 0.02 tons from the previous period [78]. 3.2.5 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China is 10.5 dollars/ton, up 1.6 dollars/ton week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China is 24.6 dollars/ton, up 2.6 dollars/ton week - on - week [81]. 3.2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore is 36, widening 0.5 from last week, with little change overall. The basis of the 09 - contract is at a neutral - low level, narrowing 12 last week [83]. - The coke - ore ratio is 1.92, and the rebar - ore ratio is 4.21. The coke - ore ratio widens, and the rebar - ore ratio is basically flat. Considering the overall decline of the black - series market, the spread trading fluidity is not high [86].