债券专题:5月城投净偿还量增大,协会新增融资仍以交通基建为主
Xinda Securities·2025-06-09 07:04
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the net repayment scale of urban investment bonds increased, with a net repayment of 57.3 billion yuan. The net financing scale of exchange - traded urban investment bonds decreased, and the net repayment scale of association - issued urban investment bonds increased. Only 9 provinces and cities had positive net financing, while 19 had net repayment. Over the past year, the net financing of most provinces has significantly declined [4]. - The actual early repayment scale of urban investment bonds in May decreased by 1.08 billion yuan compared to April, but the announced scale of early repayment and cash tender offers increased. There were 17 newly - issuing platforms, 8 fewer than in April, and most of them issued private - placement corporate bonds [4]. - The proportion of urban investment bonds issued for debt roll - over in May decreased slightly by 2.9 percentage points to 81.7%. The proportions of funds for working capital, project construction, and equity investment also decreased slightly, while the proportion of debt repayment increased. Most of the new financing from the association was for transportation infrastructure platforms [4]. - As of the end of May, 375 urban investment entities declared themselves as "market - oriented operating entities" when issuing bonds. After the association's market - oriented declaration, the bonds still could not cover interest, while the proportion of new financing after the exchange's declaration increased [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 5 - Month Urban Investment Bond Net Repayment Scale Increased, Early Repayment Decreased but Announced Scale Increased - Net Repayment Scale: In May, urban investment bonds had a net repayment of 57.2 billion yuan, a slight increase from April. The net financing of exchange - traded products was 3.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.9 billion yuan compared to April, and the net repayment of association - issued products was 60.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.3 billion yuan compared to April [4][8]. - Regional Differences: Only 9 provinces and cities such as Shandong, Guangdong, and Guizhou had positive net financing, while 19 provinces and cities including Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hubei had net repayment. Over the past year, the net financing of most provinces has significantly declined, with some provinces like Shandong seeing a decline in net financing scale, and Guangdong having the largest increase. Some key provinces such as Jilin, Guangxi, and Yunnan have seen an increase in net financing [4][11]. - Early Repayment: The actual early repayment scale in May decreased by 1.08 billion yuan to 510 million yuan compared to April. There were 24 bonds announcing early repayment through bondholder meetings, with the proposed repayment amount increasing by 233 million yuan to 1.0869 billion yuan compared to April. Thirteen bonds announced cash tender offers, with the proposed repurchase scale increasing by 879 million yuan to 296.9 million yuan compared to April [4]. - Newly - Issuing Platforms: There were 17 newly - issuing platforms in May, 8 fewer than in April, with a total issuance scale of 1.131 billion yuan. After excluding Shenzhen Stock Exchange private - placement bonds, 13 platforms disclosed prospectuses, and 11 of them could achieve new financing [21]. 3.2 The Proportion of Debt Roll - over in May Issuance Slightly Declined, and Most of the New Association Financing was for Transportation Infrastructure Platforms - Use of Funds: The proportion of urban investment bonds issued for debt roll - over in May decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 81.7%. The proportions of funds for working capital, project construction, and equity investment decreased by 0.4 percentage points, while the proportion of debt repayment increased by 3.3 percentage points [24]. - Regional Differences: In May, Guizhou, Ningxia, and Tianjin still maintained a 100% debt roll - over ratio. The debt roll - over ratios of 8 provinces and cities such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hebei increased, while those of 14 provinces and cities including Anhui, Beijing, and Fujian decreased [25]. - New Financing Entities: The association issued 11 bonds in May, involving 10 entities with a total issuance scale of 1.375 billion yuan. Most of them were transportation infrastructure platforms, and none were on the Wind urban investment list. The exchange issued 36 bonds, involving 31 entities with a total issuance scale of 2.6765 billion yuan. Only 2 entities were on the Wind urban investment list [29][31]. 3.3 After the Association's Market - Oriented Declaration in May, the Bonds Still Could Not Cover Interest, and the Proportion of New Financing after the Exchange's Declaration Increased - Market - Oriented Entities: As of the end of May, 375 urban investment entities declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities. Among them, 356 declared in association - issued products, and 19 declared in exchange - traded products. In May, 14 new entities made such declarations, including 8 in the association and 6 in the exchange [5][35]. - Use of Funds: After the association's market - oriented declaration, the bonds were mainly for debt roll - over and could not cover interest. After the exchange's declaration, the proportion of new financing increased, with some funds used for debt repayment, project construction, etc. [5][38]. - Credit Spreads: As of May 30, the credit spreads of AA - rated market - oriented operating entities and non - declared entities both converged. The spreads between market - oriented and non - declared entities in most regions of AA and AA(2) grades oscillated downward, and the spreads between the two types of entities had not yet shown significant differentiation [5].