城市更新政策再发力

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a slowdown in sales recovery, with urban renewal policies gaining momentum. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced over 20 cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, will receive more than 20 billion yuan in central financial support for urban renewal projects in the coming years [1] - The report suggests that the sales growth of new and second-hand homes in core cities has further slowed down, necessitating stronger real estate control policies to stabilize the market [1] - It recommends focusing on distressed real estate companies that may experience a turnaround, such as China Vanke and New Town Holdings, as well as leading companies maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments [1] Sales Review (5.31-6.6) - A total of 13,000 units were sold across 32 monitored cities, a week-on-week decrease of 37.3%. Cumulatively, 349,000 units have been sold in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [2][13] - In first-tier cities, 3,744 units were sold, down 41.5% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 101,000 units sold in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [2][13] - Second-tier cities saw 7,820 units sold, down 35% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 207,000 units sold in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% [2][13] - Third-tier cities recorded 1,256 units sold, down 37.6% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 42,000 units sold in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [2][13] Land Supply (5.26-6.1) - The planned construction area for residential land supply across 100 cities is 9.14 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 89.1 million square meters in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [3][21] - The average floor price for land supply across 100 cities is 7,119 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 6,092 yuan per square meter, showing a week-on-week decrease of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [3][21] Land Transaction (5.26-6.1) - The planned construction area for residential land transactions across 100 cities is 4.26 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 73.97 million square meters sold in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [4][46] - The average transaction floor price for residential land across 100 cities is 5,455 yuan per square meter, down 16.6% week-on-week but up 5.1% year-on-year, with an overall premium rate of 5.5% [4][46]