纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250609

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: June 9 - 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the market showed a volatile and weak trend. The domestic soda ash production capacity has gradually recovered, with an operating rate of 80.76%. The inventory of heavy - soda ash increased by 3.10 million tons to 83.7 million tons, while the inventory of light - soda ash slightly decreased to 79 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the market trading activity is low. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The soda ash price was weakly operating last week. The supply increased due to the resumption of production after maintenance, the demand was weak, and the inventory was still at a high level. The overall supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was expected to continue, and the price was in a volatile state. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The soda ash futures market showed a volatile and weak trend last week. The supply remained high, the downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the supply - demand pattern was loose. The price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes soda ash开工率, production, light - soda ash inventory, heavy - soda ash inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the 5mm float glass market in China continued to decline, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the competition is intensifying. The futures market also showed a volatile and downward trend. The supply of production lines resumed, the demand was affected by the off - season and rainfall, and the inventory reached a high level this year. Although the raw material price rebound drove a short - term rise, the upward momentum was insufficient. The float glass is expected to run in a volatile state [30]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The float glass price hit a new low after volatility last week. The actual cold - repair effect was less than expected, the supply growth trend still existed, and the demand - side orders decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand weak fundamentals were difficult to change in the short term. The glass 2509 was expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The 5mm float glass market in China declined last week, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the futures market is in a weak and volatile state. The glass 2509 is expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes float glass production, operating rate, production cost and profit of the natural - gas - fueled float process, basis, and ending inventory [36][40][43] 4. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds show that the long - short flow is 99.0 (the main force is strongly bullish), the capital energy is - 69.0 (the capital outflow amplitude is large), and the long - short divergence is 93.3 (the risk of market reversal is high) [47]