全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | US Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | Commodities | Sideways | | A-shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Sideways | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, trade conflict expectations fluctuated, with tariff changes being the main market trading theme. The US May non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations, delaying the market's interest rate cut expectations to September and December. Risk appetite declined at the beginning of the week and rebounded on Friday. Different assets had varying understandings and trades regarding trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be resolved. In the short term, trade conflicts are not expected to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains severe [6]. - The global risk appetite continued to recover this week, with most of the equity markets rising. The US dollar weakened, while other currencies generally strengthened. The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. The commodity index increased significantly, and the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally [8][10][15][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Trade conflict expectations were volatile this week, and tariff changes dominated market trading. The US May non-farm payroll report alleviated concerns about a US economic recession, delaying interest rate cut expectations. Different assets showed different responses to trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be addressed. In the short term, trade conflicts are unlikely to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains challenging [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Most of the global equity markets rose this week. Among developed markets, the South Korean KOSPI index rose 4.2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, and the German DAX index rose 1.3%, while the Nikkei 225 declined slightly by 0.6%. Among emerging markets, most indices recorded gains, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rising 2.2%, the Saudi All-Share Index rising 1.7%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rising 1.5%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.1%. In the MSCI global index, most national indices rose, with emerging markets > frontier markets > emerging markets > developed markets [8][9]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar weakened this week, while other currencies generally strengthened. The US Dollar Index fell 0.24% and fluctuated around 100. Among emerging markets, the Brazilian real appreciated 2.87%, the Mexican peso appreciated 1.7%, the Thai baht appreciated 0.45%, and the onshore RMB appreciated slightly by 0.15%. Among developed markets, the South Korean won appreciated significantly by 1.65%, the Australian dollar appreciated 0.91%, and the Japanese yen depreciated 0.55% [10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.51%, the eurozone government bond yield rose slightly to 2.61%, the Japanese government bond yield fell to 1.48%, and the Singapore government bond yield dropped significantly to 2.22%. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield fell slightly to 1.66%, and the Brazilian government bond yield rose significantly to 14.18% [15]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The commodity index increased significantly this week. WTI crude oil rose 6.55% to $64.8 per barrel, natural gas rose 9.8%, and the metal sector generally closed higher. COMEX gold rose slightly by 0.47% to $3331 per ounce, LME copper rose 1.82%, and COMEX silver soared 9.4%. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally, with the black index rising significantly by 3.9%, and the performance ranking as black > agricultural products > precious metals > non-ferrous metals > industrial products > energy and chemicals [21][22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - The change in the US foreign tariff policy remains the short-term core focus of the market. Overall, the room for further deterioration of short-term tariffs is limited, causing the gold price to rise first and then fall, with the high point gradually decreasing. The US economic data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements maintain a hawkish and pause interest rate cut tone, which is bearish for gold from a fundamental perspective. The CFTC gold speculative net long positions stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased slightly. The London silver price soared last week, and the gold-silver ratio quickly recovered. The silver's catch-up rally may indicate a phased peak for precious metals [31][35][44]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The economic data released this week showed that the economic fundamentals are under increasing downward pressure, while the labor market remains resilient. The US dollar index is in a tug-of-war, and the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach in the short term. The market's expectation of a cooling of trade conflicts has increased, but the second round of trade negotiations may be more difficult than the first. In the short term, the US dollar index will maintain a sideways trend [45]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The market continued to trade around tariff changes this week. The phone call between Chinese and US leaders released a positive signal, boosting market sentiment in the short term. However, as the expiration of the tariff suspension in July approaches, the risk of increased tariff pressure still exists. The US economic data continues to decline, but there are no obvious signs of deterioration, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday maintained resilience, further alleviating market recession concerns. The market's expectation of the economy is relatively optimistic, but if the inflation data rebounds more than expected next week, it will still bring correction risks to US stocks [50]. 3.3.4 Commodities - This week, the top gainers in the domestic market included silver, coking coal, tin, INE crude oil, coke, low-sulfur fuel oil, LPG, methanol, rubber, and CSI 500, while the top losers included ferrosilicon, urea, pulp, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, rapeseed meal, live pigs, PTA, styrene, and corn starch. The gainers were concentrated in the industrial products sector, while the losers were concentrated in agricultural products [61]. 3.3.5 A-shares - Recently, with the success of the market's bet on the "taco" trade, the probability of the outperformance of micro-cap growth stocks has increased, leading to a divergence in industry gains. Among the A-share CITIC first-level industries, 23 rose (20 last week) and 7 fell (10 last week). The leading industry was communications (+5.06%), and the industry with the largest decline was home appliances (-1.75%) [68]. 3.3.6 Treasury Bonds - Although the factors driving the bond market's strength are mainly at the expectation level, and the market may experience fluctuations, the long-term upward trend is relatively clear. Currently, the bond bull market is in the accumulation phase, and it is recommended to adopt a bullish approach [28]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model predicts that the Q2 growth rate will rebound to 3.8%. As the intensity of import rush fades, the drag of import data on GDP data weakens, and retail sales data remains resilient. The rebound in crude oil prices and tariff pressure have made it difficult to eliminate the market's concerns about long-term economic stagflation risks. The number of initial and continued jobless claims has risen to recent highs, and the unemployment rate may continue to rise in the future. The bank reserve amount has rebounded to $3.4 trillion, the TGA account balance has decreased to $376 billion, and the reverse repurchase scale has remained at around $150 billion. The financial market liquidity has turned loose, and corporate spreads have declined. The US economy has not fully weakened, and inflation still has the risk of rebounding. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach, and the market has basically priced in the suspension of interest rate cuts in May and June, with only a 51.8% probability of interest rate cuts starting in September [89][98][106]. 3.4.2 Domestic High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - This week, the sales volume of first-hand housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities declined more than seasonally. The number and price of second-hand housing listings were both weak. Automobile sales declined slightly year-on-year, while international oil prices fluctuated slightly upward to around $68 per barrel. In terms of capital interest rates, as of the close on April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1-week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, with changes of +18.09, +16.28, +19.30, and +12.40 bp compared to the previous weekend's close. In terms of repurchase transactions, the average daily trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week (5.66 trillion yuan), and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level (77.10%). In April, the economic data weakened. The growth rate of social retail sales decreased from the previous value of 5.9% to 5.1%, and the cumulative investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry from January to April decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous value. The cumulative infrastructure growth rate also decreased slightly to 10.9%. In April, the new RMB credit weakened. The new medium and long-term loans of the household sector turned negative again, and the phenomenon of household deleveraging still exists. The medium and long-term loans of the enterprise sector decreased significantly year-on-year, and the corporate bonds increased slightly year-on-year in a low-interest rate environment. The new government bonds increased significantly year-on-year in April, indicating that fiscal policy is front-loaded this year. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, while the M1 growth rate fluctuated at a low level, and the level of currency activation remained low. In April, China's CPI同比 decreased by 0.1%, and the core CPI同比 increased by 0.5%. The PPI同比 decreased by 2.7%. China's exports in April (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and the import growth rate was -0.2% [113][126][137][144][151].