物管基本盘稳固，独立发展轻装上阵——融创服务（1516.HK）跟踪报告

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has made significant progress in restructuring its offshore debt, with approximately 82% of bondholders supporting the restructuring plan. This is expected to help the company gradually reduce its reliance on related parties and enhance its independent growth capabilities [1][2]. - The company reported a strong sales performance in May, with total sales amounting to 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128% [1]. - The company aims to achieve stable revenue growth, with projected revenues of 7 billion yuan in 2023 and 6.97 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a slight decline but expected recovery in subsequent years [4][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of 7 billion yuan, with a core net profit of 800 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year. The dividend declared for 2024 is 0.143 yuan per share, totaling approximately 440 million yuan, which represents 55% of the core net profit [1][4]. - The gross profit margin for property management services is projected to be 20.9%, with fluctuations noted in community living and non-owner value-added services [3]. Business Development - The company has significantly reduced its dependence on related parties, with third-party revenue expected to reach 6.8 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 97.6% of total revenue. The company is anticipated to fully escape the impact of the real estate cycle starting in 2025 [2]. - The company is focusing on core cities, with a managed area of 290 million square meters by the end of 2024, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth. The project renewal rate stands at 95%, indicating a solid operational foundation [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 420 million yuan and 520 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 620 million yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 11/9/8 times for the years 2025-2027 [3][4].