Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-09 08:38Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The weak demand, slow sales pace, slower inventory clearance progress, and reduced expectation of production decline have weakened the supporting factors, leading to a significant drop in apple prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to the bagging situation [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract (daily, yuan/ton) is 7486, down 220; the closing price of the October contract (daily, yuan/ton) is also 7486, down 220. The main contract's open interest (daily, lots) is 118357, up 13940, and the number of warehouse receipts (daily, sheets) is 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders (daily, lots) is - 1249, down 2184 [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (paper - bagged, above 80, first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods, daily, yuan/jin) is 4.1; the spot price of Gansu Jingning apples (paper - bagged, above 75, daily, yuan/jin) is 4.5, up 0.1; the spot price of Shandong Yiyuan apples (paper - bagged, above 75, daily, yuan/jin) is 2.8, up 0.1; the spot price of Shaanxi Luochuan apples (paper - bagged, above 70, semi - commodity, daily, yuan/jin) is 4.2 [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area (annual, thousand hectares) is 1955.77, down 19.58; the national apple production (annual, ten thousand tons) is 4960.17, up 202.99 [2] 4. Industry Situation - The wholesale price of apples (weekly, yuan/kg) is 9.47, down 0.01; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples (weekly, yuan/kg) is 9.47, up 0.16. The total national apple cold - storage inventory (weekly, ten thousand tons) is 138.2, down 13.76. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples (weekly) is 0.17, down 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples (weekly) is 0.1, down 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples (tons) is 70000, down 30000; the monthly export value of apples (ten thousand US dollars) is 7705.4, down 1995.6. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts (ten thousand US dollars) is 1136680, up 268476. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants (weekly, yuan/jin) is 0.9 [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines (weekly, yuan/kg) is 8.04, up 0.15; the wholesale price of Ya pears (weekly, yuan/kg) is 6.63, up 0.08; the wholesale price of bananas (weekly, yuan/kg) is 7, up 0.01; the wholesale price of watermelons (weekly, yuan/kg) is 4.42, down 0.28. The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market (weekly, vehicles) is 9.75, down 3.5; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market (weekly, vehicles) is 16.75, down 5; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market (weekly, vehicles) is 26.75, down 3.25 [2] 6. Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples (daily, %) is 16.4, down 0.17; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples (daily, %) is also 16.4, down 0.17 [2] 7. Industry News - On June 8, 2025, the trading in apple production areas was rather dull. There were not many merchants in cold - storage facilities inquiring and inspecting goods. A small amount of purchases had relatively strict requirements for the quality of goods. Transactions were mainly made through bargaining, and the market situation did not change much. In terms of new - season apples, as the bagging work continues, the production problem is becoming clearer. In areas where a production decline was previously expected, the expectation of a decline has weakened. According to market research on the fruit - setting and bagging situation in the main apple - producing areas of Shaanxi, the fruit - setting and bagging situation in Shaanxi this year has a production decline of no more than 5% - 10% compared with the same period last year [2] 8. Viewpoint Summary - As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold - storage facilities in the national main producing areas is 138.20 ten thousand tons, a decrease of 13.77 ten thousand tons compared with last week. This week, the storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 17.29%, a decrease of 0.93% compared with last week, and the inventory clearance speed has slowed down compared with the previous period. The Shandong production area is currently in the busy bagging season, with fewer merchants in the area. The sales of apples have slowed down compared with the previous period, and the packaging and shipment from cold - storage facilities have decreased. This week, the storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area is 9.66%, a decrease of 1.16% compared with last week, and the sales are slightly slower than last week. During the week, it was mainly merchants shipping their previously self - stored goods, with limited in - warehouse transactions. Some suitable goods were hard to find, and the asking prices of inventory holders have not shown an obvious loosening [2]