德邦证券海外市场周报：破裂与修复-20250609

Market Performance - Global stock markets saw more gains than losses last week, with the South Korean Composite Index leading major markets[1] - The US stock indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by +2.2%, +1.5%, and +1.2% respectively[1] - European markets also experienced collective gains, while the Asia-Pacific region had mixed results, with only Vietnam's VN30 and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices experiencing pullbacks[1] Economic Indicators - The US added 139,000 jobs in May, with an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, which is below the 12-month average of 149,000 jobs per month[3] - The ADP report indicated only 37,000 new jobs, significantly lower than the revised 60,000 from April and the market expectation of 110,000[3] Strategic Recommendations - Investors should consider increasing risk appetite in light of potential positive developments from US-China trade negotiations, while remaining cautious of increased volatility[2] - Equity markets are viewed as the optimal choice, particularly in the context of US-China relations, while fixed income and commodities are seen as less favorable[2] Risk Factors - Potential rebound in overseas inflation exceeding expectations could lead to tighter monetary policies from central banks, impacting equity market valuations[2] - Signs of weakening in the US economy may signal a global economic downturn, posing risks to market stability[2] - Escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like the Middle East, could heighten global risk aversion and market volatility[2]