2025下半年资产配置展望：从对美脱锚到中国重估

Core Views - The report highlights that 2023 is an "atypical" macro year, with significant impacts from Trump's policies on global trade, finance, and geopolitics, leading to a restructuring of the global order [3] - As the market shifts away from US assets, Chinese assets are expected to undergo a revaluation, suggesting a strategic focus on "high odds + left-side emphasis + trading" to navigate uncertainties [3][6] - The report suggests that the weakening dollar may favor non-US assets, with European assets showing higher probabilities of performance, while emerging markets like Hong Kong may offer better odds [3][6] Market Environment - The report identifies three main themes driving asset price performance: global cycle misalignment, AI technology revolution, and global capital reallocation [4] - It notes that the restructuring of global order is altering asset pricing rules, leading to increased volatility and reduced trends across various asset classes [6][13] - The report emphasizes the need for diversified asset allocation strategies in response to changing correlations and the impact of fiscal policies [16] Investment Themes - The report outlines several investment themes for the second half of 2025, including the reconstruction of economic, financial, and geopolitical orders, with a focus on nearshoring and de-dollarization trends [5][17] - It highlights the potential for structural opportunities in regions and industries, particularly in defense, self-sufficiency, and scarce resources due to increased geopolitical uncertainties [5][17] - The report also discusses the implications of a potential stagflation scenario in the US and deflation risks in non-US markets, suggesting a cautious approach to asset allocation [5][24] Asset Pricing - The report indicates that the pricing anchor effect of US Treasuries is weakening due to policy uncertainties and debt issues, leading to a potential revaluation of non-US assets [6][49] - It suggests that the global capital market may see increased diversification as the correlation between US and non-US assets declines [6][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility in asset operations and focusing on high odds and low correlation strategies [6][40] Debt Dynamics - The report discusses the implications of the US debt situation, highlighting the challenges posed by high deficits and the potential for a long-term weakening of the dollar [49][53] - It notes that the US government's reliance on short-term debt may create new fiscal stability concerns, particularly as refinancing costs rise [57][58] - The report suggests that the government's approach to managing debt will be a critical factor influencing asset performance in the coming years [59]