2025年5月价格数据点评：如何看待分化的物价？

Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year change was -0.1%, consistent with the previous month and better than the market expectation of -0.2%[2] - The core CPI year-on-year increased to +0.6%, up from +0.5% in the previous month[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to -3.3%, compared to -2.7% previously, and was below the market expectation of -3.2%[2] Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - Domestic prices remain low due to falling energy prices and weak domestic investment demand, but certain sectors like travel services and high-tech products are seeing price increases[3] - Food prices in May showed a month-on-month decline of -0.2%, which is better than the five-year average decline of -1.4%[5] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing nearly 70% to the total CPI decline[5] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain low growth rates, with potential downward pressure from the pig market due to policy adjustments leading to increased supply[3] - PPI's month-on-month decline is anticipated to narrow as international oil prices stabilize and trade conditions improve[3] - The performance of core CPI and CPI may diverge, influenced by external factors such as oil prices and domestic consumption recovery[4]