信用策略周报20250608：跨季继续看好信用-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit has reached a new critical point. Short - term credit spreads are extremely compressed with limited gaming space, while mid - to long - term varieties still have opportunities and risks may be controllable [7][52]. - The 5 - year - plus long second - tier capital bonds may experience a narrowing of variety spreads, and there are riding gains in 4 - year - around credit products [7][52]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Who is Boosting the Credit Market? 1.1. May: Low Interest Rates and Credit Catch - up - In May, short - term interest rates declined slightly, while long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates rose. The 10 - year Treasury yield increased by 4.7bp, and the 30 - year Treasury yield increased by 7.2bp [13]. - Credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. Credit spreads narrowed significantly. General credit bonds performed better than second - tier capital and perpetual bonds. Yields of sinking and duration - extending urban investment bonds decreased by over 10bp, and 7 - year - around ultra - long bonds also performed well [3][14][20]. - Entering June, the bond market recovered due to multiple factors. Short - term interest rates were stronger, while credit bonds with poor liquidity reacted slowly, with yields fluctuating and credit spreads mostly widening passively [3][26][27]. 1.2. Who is the Driving Force behind the Credit Market? - From the secondary net - buying data of credit bonds, major buyers such as funds and wealth management products had daily net - buying volumes of 130, 176, and 184 billion yuan in March, April, and May respectively, with a slight increase in May [24][26][29]. - Public funds were the main buyers, especially in the first two weeks of May when their buying intensity was at a high level this year, including increased allocation to long - term credit over 5 years [4][24][29]. - Bank wealth management products had relatively low buying intensity for general credit bonds since April but significantly higher than previous years for long - term credit over 5 years [4][24][29]. - Comparing with the same period in previous years, public funds' buying intensity for credit has increased significantly since late March [33]. - In May, the secondary trading sentiment of general credit bonds heated up, with more transactions, more low - valuation deals, and stronger buying sentiment [34]. - The distribution of significantly low - valuation traded bonds reflects the direction of institutional coupon strategies, including urban investment bonds with implicit ratings of AA(2) and below and some industrial entities [36]. 2. Do We Need to Worry about Wealth Management Products' Quarter - End Repatriation? 2.1. What Changes Have Occurred in Wealth Management Products' Holdings of Credit Bonds? - Since 2023, while the scale of wealth management products has been growing steadily, the absolute scale of their credit - bond holdings has increased, but the proportion in the total investment scale has decreased from about 43.86% in mid - 2023 to 41.11% by the end of 2024 [5][39]. - The investment proportion in assets such as inter - bank certificates of deposit, cash, and bank deposits has increased, implementing a low - volatility strategy [5][39]. - This year, the overall buying intensity of wealth management products in the secondary market is lower than in previous years, but the net - buying volume of second - tier capital bonds far exceeds previous years [43]. - Since 2022, the scale of wealth management products' direct holdings of Shanghai Stock Exchange credit bonds has been decreasing, while that of trust institutions has been increasing, but it has declined since 2025 [45]. 2.2. Wealth Management Products' Repatriation and Widening Credit Spreads - Since 2022, credit spreads have mostly widened in quarter - end months, except in June 2022, March 2023, and March 2025. In March 2025, there were factors of institutional pre - emptive actions [6][47]. - Wealth management institutions manage liquidity more precisely. The quarter - end repatriation may have a limited negative impact on credit spreads and may even trigger institutional pre - emptive actions due to expected growth in wealth management product scale [6][48]. 3. How to View Credit in the Future? - Short - term credit spreads are extremely compressed, with limited room for further compression. Mid - to long - term varieties still have opportunities, and risks may be controllable despite quarter - end liability - side disturbances [7][52]. - The key lies in grasping liquidity. The 5 - year - plus long second - tier capital bonds may see a narrowing of variety spreads, and there are riding gains in 4 - year - around credit products [7][52].