国内观察：2025年5月通胀数据：价格压力持续，亟待政策破局

Inflation Data Summary - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month, while the month-on-month change was -0.2%, down from 0.1%[3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased to -3.3% from -2.7%, with a month-on-month change of -0.4%, consistent with the previous month[3] CPI Analysis - The CPI month-on-month decline of -0.2% aligns with the seasonal average over the past four years[3] - Food prices showed resilience with a month-on-month change of -0.2%, better than the four-year average of -0.9%, while non-food prices also fell by -0.2%, below the average of 0.0%[3] - Pork prices have remained stable, contributing less to CPI changes, with fresh vegetables and fruits showing stronger seasonal performance[3] PPI Insights - The PPI has broken below the previous range of -2.0% to -3.0%, indicating a significant downward trend[3] - Production materials have seen a month-on-month decline for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year drop of -4.0%[3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total decrease[3] Economic Outlook - Actual GDP is expected to remain resilient in Q2, but nominal GDP may face pressure, impacting equity market potential[3] - The report highlights the need for increased policy measures to stimulate demand and address supply-side competition issues[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, unexpected declines in real estate investment, and inflationary pressures from the U.S.[3]