梅雨到来，下周水电或受益

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Outperform" rating for the industry, expecting a relative increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12-18 months [14][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are fluctuating, and with the onset of the rainy season, water inflow for hydropower may improve, potentially benefiting hydropower output in the coming week [3][4]. - In the week of June 3-6, Huaneng Power International saw a 0.7% increase, while Huadian Power International and China Yangtze Power experienced slight declines of 0.3% and 0.7% respectively. China Longyuan Power Group H increased by 5%, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.1% and the ChiNext Index by 2.3% [4]. - The report notes that in May, Guodian Changyuan Electric Power and China Longyuan Power Group showed improved power generation compared to the first four months of the year, indicating a positive trend in power demand [4]. - The report cites significant growth in global and Chinese renewable energy, with a projected increase of 590 million kilowatts in global renewable energy capacity in 2024, of which China will contribute 374 million kilowatts, accounting for 86.3% of the national new capacity [4]. - By the end of April, China's renewable energy capacity reached 2.02 billion kilowatts, with wind and solar power totaling 1.53 billion kilowatts, and a target for new energy utilization rate to be no less than 90% by 2027 [4]. - The average power outage time for urban and rural users in China is expected to decrease significantly by 2024, with major cities achieving an average outage time below 1 hour [4]. Summary by Sections Hydropower and Coal Market - The report anticipates an increase in hydropower output due to the rainy season, which may stabilize coal prices, particularly futures [3][4]. - The electricity prices in regions like Guangdong and Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai will depend on hydropower output [4]. Renewable Energy Development - The report emphasizes the rapid development of renewable energy in China, with a year-over-year increase of 17.3% in generation [4]. - Jiangsu province has initiated a long-term trial operation of its power spot market, with new energy capacity reaching 101 million kilowatts, representing 46% of the province's total capacity [4]. Infrastructure Developments - The report mentions the successful grid connection of Shandong's ultra-supercritical coal-fired unit, which is expected to generate 10 billion kilowatt-hours annually, impacting local coal consumption and electricity prices [4].