CPI、PPI点评：服务消费推升核心CPI，耐用品补贴或仍需加码

Inflation Data - April CPI year-on-year decline remained at -0.1% for the third consecutive month, while core CPI slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%[2] - May food CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline deepening to -0.4%[3] - Core CPI rose 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% in May, driven by stable growth in service prices[4] PPI Trends - May PPI year-on-year decline deepened by 0.6 percentage points to -3.3%, marking the lowest level since August 2023[2] - PPI was significantly affected by falling prices in the coal and oil sectors, with oil and gas extraction prices dropping 5.6% month-on-month[4] - The coal and metallurgy industry prices also fell, influenced by seasonal demand and adverse weather conditions affecting construction projects[4] Consumer Behavior - Service CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5% in May, supported by rising accommodation and travel prices during the May Day holiday[4] - Durable goods consumption is showing diminishing returns from fiscal subsidies, with transportation tools' prices narrowing their year-on-year decline to -3.4%[4] - The real estate market remains in a bottoming phase, with rental prices stable at -0.1% year-on-year and a slight month-on-month decline of 0.1%[4] Economic Outlook - The overall inflation data suggests a weak domestic consumption and investment demand, with limited potential for growth in the near term[5] - The necessity for larger-scale consumer subsidies has decreased, but export pressures are expected to rise post the 90-day tariff relief period[5] - A prediction of a potential 10 basis points rate cut in June remains, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market[5]