从日债到美债：全球期限溢价的涟漪

Global Macro - The rapid rise in Japanese super-long government bond yields since mid-May 2025 has triggered turbulence in the global bond market, with the 40-year bond yield surpassing 3.68%, the highest since its issuance in 2007 [2][6][23] - The increase in yields reflects structural changes in the global bond market amid fiscal expansion and diverging central bank policies, with expectations of further fiscal easing pushing up risk premiums [2][6][23] Japanese Long-term Bond Yield Dynamics - The primary driver of the recent rise in Japanese long-term bond yields is the gradual normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, which has created conditions for the repricing of super-long government bonds [3][24] - A structural imbalance in supply and demand has exacerbated market volatility, as the absence of the Bank of Japan as a "super buyer" has removed crucial market support [3][30] - The demand side is also under pressure, with rising interest rate expectations leading domestic institutional investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, further weakening buying power [3][37] Economic Challenges and Policy Dilemmas - Japan's economy faces dual challenges of weak domestic demand and external tariff shocks, with the central bank caught in a policy dilemma [3][52] - The government debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 260%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as rising long-term bond yields increase borrowing costs [3][60] Spillover Effects on Global Bond Markets - The volatility in Japanese long-term bond yields has significant spillover effects on the U.S. Treasury market, with Japanese insurers and pension funds potentially exerting structural selling pressure on U.S. bonds [3][64] - The global bond market is undergoing a systematic reassessment of risk premiums, with Japan's long-term bond yields acting as a "ballast" in the global interest rate system [3][70] U.S. Treasury Yield Outlook - Short-term risks for U.S. Treasury yields are notable, with expectations of a resolution to the debt ceiling issue leading to substantial net issuance of $300-400 billion within 2-3 months [3][91] - The anticipated fiscal policies under the Trump administration may further pressure U.S. Treasury yields, with a projected range of 4.0-5.0% for the 10-year yield by the end of 2025 [3][105]