瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the polysilicon price continues to move sideways. For long - term operations, short - selling is still the main strategy. The supply side of polysilicon has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, while the market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. The demand side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules reduced, silicon wafer enterprise self - discipline quotas lowered, and battery cell enterprises having production cut plans. Terminal market purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the demand side of polysilicon faces great pressure. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, which suppresses the market price [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 34,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 635 yuan; the main position volume is 64,975 lots, a decrease of 204 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 2,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 685 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 26,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 820 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The basis of polysilicon is 1,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 7,475 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory is 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 pieces, a decrease of 11,583,800 pieces; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 pieces, an increase of 10,274,320 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.02 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, unchanged [3]. Industry News - As of June 6, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, N - type re - feeding polysilicon, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are all temporarily stable. Li Qiang had a phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Kearney, and China is willing to promote the continuous improvement of bilateral relations with Canada. From the supply side of polysilicon, all manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, and the market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing [3]. Key Focus - No news today [3]