瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250609

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates zinc prices to fluctuate within a range. It suggests a wait - and - see approach and recommends monitoring the price range of 21,800 - 22,700 yuan/ton. The macro - economic situation shows employment resilience in the US, reducing the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are rising, and smelter profits are improving, but there are supply disruptions due to a refinery's extended maintenance. Demand is at the end of the peak season, and there are concerns about export demand due to tariffs. However, low zinc prices have led to increased bargain - hunting and a decline in domestic social inventories, with overseas inventories also decreasing. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 21,910 yuan/ton, down 475 yuan. The 07 - 08 month contract spread is 175 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,662.5 dollars/ton, down 25.5 dollars. - The total open interest of Shanghai Zinc is 276,994 lots, up 41,984 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 5,603 lots, down 10,771 lots. - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,078 tons, up 74 tons. The SHFE inventory is 47,012 tons, up 4,702 tons, and the LME inventory is 135,600 tons, down 1,375 tons. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,410 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 680 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 35.6 dollars/ton, down 0.09 dollars. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,520 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production by ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons. Refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 58,200 tons, down 800 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. - The monthly new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters, and the completed housing area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters. - The monthly automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.11%, down 0.22%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.11%, down 0.18%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.98%, up 0.03%. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.3%, up 0.51%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - In May in the US, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls were 1.39 million, higher than the expected 1.3 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. - Some Fed officials have different views: Harker thinks there may be an interest rate cut later this year; Musalem believes the probability of a continuous inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%; Bowman proposes to change the regulatory rating of large banks and is considering an independent regulatory framework for community banks. - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points. - In May, China's passenger car manufacturers' wholesale volume reached 2.31 million, a record high for the month, with a year - on - year increase of 12.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%. From January to May, the cumulative wholesale volume was 10.0784 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. [3]