瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly converging demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short trades at high prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,025 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,892 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum and alumina both increased. LME aluminum注销仓单 and LME aluminum inventory decreased [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased. The Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory in the previous period decreased [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum decreased, while the alumina spot price remained unchanged. The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumaoh and LME decreased, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production decreased by 15.22 tons to 732.30 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.17% to 80.93%. The demand for alumina decreased by 30.02 tons to 693.70 tons, and the supply - demand balance decreased by 13.48 tons to - 9.93 tons [2] - The export and import quantities of alumina decreased, the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import and export quantities of primary aluminum increased, the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.00 tons to 4,520.20 tons, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.05% to 97.65% [2] - The production of aluminum products decreased by 21.77 tons to 576.40 tons, and the export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 2.70 tons to 54.70 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of aluminum alloy decreased by 12.70 tons to 152.80 tons, and the export quantity of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.16 tons to 1.66 tons [2] - The automobile production decreased by 44.06 million to 260.40 million, and the National Housing Prosperity Index decreased by 0.09 to 93.86 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.03% to 10.81%, the 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 12.40%. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV increased slightly, and the option call - put ratio increased [2] 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts and bank regulations. The Sino - EU negotiation on the price commitment of electric vehicles was in the final stage [2] - US employment growth slowed down in May, and the US import volume in April decreased by 16.3% month - on - month. The global manufacturing PMI in May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]