Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-09 10:53Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 9, 2025, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. Macroscopically, Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 47.89%, with the reduction amplitude in the off - season expanding. Both the factory inventory and social inventory of rebar continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down, with the total inventory decreasing by 10.57 tons. In addition, the steel export volume in May exceeded 10 million tons again. Overall, the apparent demand for rebar declined, but recent steel prices were more affected by macro factors. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is short - term trading within the day, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,981 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume was 2,196,722 lots, down 19,727 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 820 lots, down 16,330 lots. The spread between the RB10 - 1 contract was 2 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 37,755 tons, down 2,412 tons. The spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract was 114 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the spot market, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 139 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - In the upstream market, the price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 726 yuan/wet ton, down 9 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,320 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,205 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 138.2669 million tons, down 398,900 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 881,900 tons, up 97,100 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.4595 million tons, down 89,300 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 674,500 tons, up 2,800 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.54%, down 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.63%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - In the industry, the weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.1846 million tons, down 70,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 47.89%, down 1.55 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8486 million tons, down 16,000 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8562 million tons, down 89,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 72.92%, down 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, down 6.82 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 18.61 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.097 million tons, up 157,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - In the downstream market, the national real estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 4.00%, down 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.30%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.80%, unchanged. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, down 66.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, down 48.39 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 417.03 million square meters, up 4.55 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to customs data on June 9, in May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, an increase of 116,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January to May, the cumulative export of steel was 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import of steel was 2.553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [2].