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快手-W(01024):可灵动态竞争壁垒加强,关注6月拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 74.58 HKD per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant progress in its commercial operations, particularly with its Kuaishou Keling product, which achieved monthly revenues exceeding 1 billion CNY in April and May [3][8]. - The Keling 2.1 version was launched at the end of May, offering a higher cost-performance ratio, which is expected to drive user growth and increase paid subscriptions [8]. - The company is experiencing a positive cycle of technology iteration, product refinement, user payment, and revenue growth, similar to the trajectory of overseas competitors [8]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit for the company is projected to be 195 billion CNY in 2025, with expected growth to 246 billion CNY by 2027 [4][9]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 113.47 billion CNY in 2023 to 164.14 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [9][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 56.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9][11]. Performance Metrics - The company's stock price performance has shown a 20% increase over the past month and an 18.97% increase over the past week [6]. - The company has repurchased shares worth 19 billion HKD since the beginning of 2025, providing a safety net for shareholder returns [8].