Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the US dollar bonds [1][4]. Core Views - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, the lowest in three months, and the unemployment rate effectively rising to 4.244%, the highest since 2021 [1]. - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight economic slowdown, with businesses planning to pass on costs due to tariffs and uncertainty, leading to a pessimistic outlook [2]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts remain at two times within the year, with the first anticipated in September, despite external pressures [3]. Summary by Sections US Macro Economy and Liquidity - The labor market is showing signs of fatigue, with a decrease in full-time positions exceeding 600,000 and a labor participation rate dropping to 62.4% [1]. - Wage growth is strong, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, primarily due to a contraction in labor supply rather than strong demand [1]. Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The report suggests a focus on structural selection in US dollar bond investments, prioritizing medium to short durations while being cautious with long-term bonds [4]. - The long-term yield of US bonds is under pressure due to fiscal deficits and supply-demand imbalances, with a recommendation to consider TIPS or floating rate bonds to hedge against inflation and interest rate risks [4]. Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, three major international rating agencies have made nine rating actions on Chinese dollar bond issuers, including five upgrades and three downgrades [94]. - Notable upgrades include Shandong Hi-Speed Group Co., Ltd. from A- to A by Fitch, and China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. from BB+ to BBB- by Fitch [95].
美元债双周报（25年第23周）：美国非农就业疲态初现，市场降息预期维持2次-20250609
Guoxin Securities·2025-06-09 11:07