Orient Securities·2025-06-09 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Insights - The real estate market showed resilience in May, with new home sales improving month-on-month, while year-on-year declines narrowed [6][29] - The report anticipates a continued downward pressure on sales in the second half of the year due to potential uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations [6][29] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality land reserves and product strength for real estate companies to achieve alpha attributes [6][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 23rd week, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -0.1%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3874.0, with a weekly increase of 0.9%, while the real estate index closed at 2174.1, with a weekly increase of 0.8% [6][10][11] Policy Developments - Nationally, the central government supports urban renewal actions, with 20 cities including Beijing and Guangzhou selected. Locally, Jiangsu has announced measures to boost consumption, while Hunan and Zhejiang have introduced policies to support housing and property acquisition [6][13][21] Sales Data - In the 23rd week, new home sales in 44 major cities decreased to 14,000 units, down 33.1% from the previous week. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities also fell to 15,000 units, down 23.0% [6][16] - Inventory levels decreased, with 18 major cities holding 825,000 units, down 21,000 units from the previous week, and a sales-to-inventory ratio of 16.8 months, down 4.5 months [6][23] Company Announcements - Key companies have made significant announcements, including major asset restructuring and share repurchase plans. Notable mentions include Chengjian Development and Haitai Development [6][28][29] Future Outlook - The report expects a year-on-year increase in second-hand home transaction volumes, while new home sales are projected to continue declining but at a reduced rate. The core areas with high efficiency and premium properties are expected to drive this trend [6][29]