有色金属周报（铅）：区间整理-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the resumption of production of secondary lead is highly uncertain. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is continuously accumulating, which drags down the lead price. However, considering that both lead concentrates and waste batteries are in a tight supply pattern, there is also strong support below the lead price. In the short term, the lead price will maintain a range - bound movement, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on the lead price [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.76% month - on - month to 16,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures rose by 0.96% to 16,780 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of LME lead increased by 0.51% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 600 yuan/metal ton month - on - month, while the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 US dollars/dry ton to - 45 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply expectation of lead concentrates remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of May 30, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 39.6 yuan/ton [31]. - As of June 6, the average price of waste batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The tight supply pattern of waste batteries remains unchanged, but secondary lead smelters are still in a loss - making situation. The comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 502 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 720 yuan/ton [46][53]. 3.3 Supply Situation - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.46% month - on - month. Some smelters increased production and postponed maintenance, leading to an increase in the operating rate of primary lead smelters. The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 51,485 tons [32][38]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises decreased by 3.8 percentage points to 36.2% month - on - month. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,300 tons, showing a decline. Due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, many secondary lead smelters reduced production or intermittently shut down the furnace for heat preservation. The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, while the finished product inventory increased [59]. 3.4 Demand Situation - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries decreased by 10.1 percentage points to 60.39% month - on - month. Affected by the off - season of consumption, some downstream enterprises reduced inventory pressure by extending holidays and reducing production, especially electric bicycle enterprises, which led to a decline in the operating rate of the sector [65]. 3.5 Import and Export Situation - As of May 30, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of June 6, the import profit was - 745.19 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [75]. 3.6 Inventory Situation - As of June 5, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 53,900 tons, showing an increase. The spread between the spot and futures prices widened, and holders were more willing to deliver and transfer positions, resulting in inventory accumulation. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase [84]. - As of June 6, the inventory of SHFE refined lead increased to 47,900 tons, while the LME inventory decreased to 281,300 tons [87].