Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-09 11:53Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. The domestic inventory is decreasing, while the overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, and the price has stood above the MA10. It is expected to be in a state of oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 122,710 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 510 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 1,5490 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 US dollars/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 1,959 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,021 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 199,092 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,014 tons, and the LME nickel cancelled warrants are 27,264 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,014 tons. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,616 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,459 tons, and the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,192 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 35 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 123,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 123,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main NI contract is 1,190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 179.97 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.63 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 291.41 million tons, with an increase of 137.89 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 696.86 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 29.02 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 78.86 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 32.99 US dollars/ton. The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 1,100 metal tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, with an increase of 10,187.11 tons. The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 182.43 million tons, with a decrease of 775,000 tons. The total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 611,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 520 tons, and the import volume of ferronickel is 816,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 196,400 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - In the US, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in May were 139,000, higher than the market expectation of 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. Some Fed officials have different views: Harker believes that the Fed may cut interest rates later this year; Musalem thinks the probability of a continuous inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%; Bowman proposes to change the regulatory rating of large - scale banks and consider establishing an independent regulatory framework for community banks. In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. The wholesale volume of passenger cars in May reached 2.31 million, a record high for the month, with a year - on - year increase of 12.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [3]