Guohai Securities·2025-06-09 12:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 2.12% over the past two weeks, compared to a 1.10% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, resulting in a 3.22 percentage point lag [4][17] - The report highlights a significant interest in new consumption trends, particularly in health products and yellow wine, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for policy changes to improve macroeconomic expectations, which could enhance both valuation and performance in the food and beverage sector [28] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance over the last year shows a decline of 5.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 7.8% [4] - Within the sector, soft drinks have seen the highest increase of 9.45%, followed by snacks and other alcoholic beverages with increases of 5.48% and 4.98% respectively [17] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies in the liquor segment include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others [8][30] - In the consumer goods segment, companies such as Bai Run, Wei Long, Yan Jin Pu Zi, Wan Chen Group, and You You Food are highlighted as key players [10][30] Market Trends - The report notes that the 618 shopping festival has led to increased competition and promotional activities in the liquor market, which may pressure prices [6][8] - New product launches, such as Nongfu Spring's new iced tea, are expected to create differentiated market offerings and enhance competitive positioning [9][30] Valuation Insights - As of June 6, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage sector stands at 21.25x, indicating a mid-range valuation among primary industries [23][28] - The report suggests that the current low valuations present an opportunity for investment as the sector is expected to benefit from upcoming policy changes [28]