Guohai Securities·2025-06-09 12:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][62]. Core Viewpoints - The swine sector may experience a combination of price and policy turning points, suggesting a bottoming out phase [4][11]. - The poultry sector is facing challenges due to overseas breeding stock import restrictions, but the yellow chicken industry is showing signs of improvement [5][26]. - The animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery, while the pet medical industry presents significant investment opportunities [6][37]. - The planting sector is witnessing a decline in wheat and soybean meal prices, which may benefit companies with early investments in genetically modified seeds [8][45]. - The feed sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with a potential increase in industry concentration [48]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength and the market showing continuous growth [56]. Summary by Sections Swine - Investment suggestion indicates that after the Spring Festival in 2025, swine prices are expected to remain stable in the range of 14-15 yuan/kg, with significant upward pressure on average weights [4][15]. - The report highlights the importance of low-cost, rapidly expanding, and financially stable swine enterprises, recommending companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][15]. Poultry - The report notes that the poultry sector is affected by avian influenza, leading to a halt in overseas breeding stock imports, but anticipates price improvements due to a lack of quality breeding sources [5][26]. - Key recommendations include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock, with a focus on companies like He Feng and Minhe Livestock [5][26]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to see a recovery in performance, supported by the profitability of the swine farming industry [6][37]. - The pet medical market is projected to reach a scale of approximately 840 billion yuan in 2024, representing 28% of the pet industry [6][37]. Planting - The report indicates a decrease in wheat and soybean meal prices, with corn prices remaining stable [8][45]. - Companies such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech are recommended for their early investments in genetically modified seeds [8][45]. Feed - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a noted decrease in prices for various types of feed [48]. - The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending Haida Group and monitoring He Feng [48]. Pets - The pet economy is growing, with the market size for pet consumption reaching 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year increase [56]. - Recommendations include companies in the pet food sector such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on the pet medical sector [56].