Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of iron ore remains at a high level, while the molten iron production has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks. Considering the decent profit per ton of steel, the molten iron production may fluctuate at a high level, and the downward trend may not be smooth. The short - term rebound pressure is at 90 (722) US dollars, and participation should be cautious [9] Summary by Directory Part I: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusions - Price: Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The Platts 62% index closed at $96.1 on June 6, down $0.7 week - on - week, equivalent to about 805 yuan after exchange - rate conversion. The optimal deliverable is NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 724 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse - receipt price of about 745 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [6] - Inventory: China's 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased week - on - week and is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory is 14,400.31 tons, a decrease of 69 tons week - on - week, 1,210 tons lower than the beginning of the year, and 1,137 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the 47 - port inventory may slightly increase in the next period [6] - Supply - Shipment: The global iron ore shipment volume this period is 3,510.4 tons, an increase of 79.4 tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 2,839.4 tons, an increase of 8.8 tons week - on - week. Australia's shipment volume is 2,093.6 tons, an increase of 196.8 tons week - on - week, and the volume shipped to China is 1,815.8 tons, an increase of 336.5 tons week - on - week. Brazil's shipment volume is 745.8 tons, a decrease of 188.0 tons week - on - week [7] - Supply - Arrival: From June 2 to June 8, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 47 ports is 2,673.9 tons, an increase of 76.5 tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2,609.3 tons, an increase of 72.8 tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1,383.6 tons, a decrease of 157.2 tons week - on - week. The arrival volume of non - mainstream ores increased by 4.5 tons to 335.2 tons [7] - Demand: The average daily molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills continued to decline this period, at 241.8 tons per day, a decrease of 0.11 tons per day week - on - week. It is expected that the molten iron production will slightly decrease in the next period. As of June 6, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China is 2,972 yuan, with a profit of about 148 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils is about 128 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace sector, the flat - rate electricity cost in East China is about 3,260 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost is about 3,128 yuan [8] Part II: Data Sorting - Iron Ore Warehouse - Receipt Price: Presents the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted warehouse - receipt prices of various iron ore varieties. The optimal deliverable is Newman powder with a warehouse - receipt price of 745 yuan, and the second - best is BRBF with a warehouse - receipt price of 754 yuan [14] - Iron Ore Inter - Delivery Spreads: Displays the historical data of iron ore 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 inter - delivery spreads [16] - Iron Ore Import Profit: No specific data analysis provided - High - and Low - Grade Price Difference: No specific data analysis provided - Premium Index: Shows the historical data of the premium indices of 62.5% lump ore and 65% pellet [25] - Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory: Displays the inventory and premium (discount) data of various iron ore brands such as Mac, PB, JMB, and Newman [27] - Steel Mill Sintered Ore Fines Inventory: The inventory of imported sintered ore fines of 64 sample steel mills decreased by 48.5 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 4.00%; the inventory of domestic sintered ore fines decreased by 0.1 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.10%; the average inventory days of imported ores decreased by 1.0 days week - on - week, a decrease of 5.00% [30] - 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption: The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.15 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.73%; the daily consumption increased by 0.80 tons, an increase of 0.27%; the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 0.29, a decrease of 0.99% [33] - Port Inventory and Berthing: No specific data analysis provided - Port Inventory by Ore Type: The inventory of imported lump ore at ports decreased by 60 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 3.85%; the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3 tons, an increase of 0.64%; the inventory of iron concentrate decreased by 79 tons, a decrease of 6.30%; the inventory of coarse ore increased by 96 tons, an increase of 0.91% [39] - Surcharge: Displays the historical data of iron ore surcharge from 2020 to 2025 [42] - Iron Ore In - Transit Volume: Displays the historical data of China's total in - transit iron ore volume and the in - transit volume from Brazil, non - mainstream countries, and Australia to China [45] - Iron Ore Import Quantity: Displays the historical import volume data of iron ore in China, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [49] - Australia's Iron Ore Shipment: Australia's shipment to China increased by 337 tons week - on - week, an increase of 22.75%; the total shipment increased by 196.8 tons, an increase of 10.38%; the proportion of shipment to China increased by 8.7%, an increase of 11.21% [58] - Brazil's Iron Ore Shipment: Brazil's global shipment decreased by 188 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 20.13% [63] - Four Major Mines' Iron Ore Shipment: The total shipment of the four major mines remained basically unchanged week - on - week. Rio Tinto's shipment decreased by 1 ton, a decrease of 0.14%; BHP's shipment increased by 72 tons, an increase of 14.02%; Vale's shipment decreased by 220 tons, a decrease of 31.15%; FMG's shipment increased by 149 tons, an increase of 44.52% [65] - Iron Ore Arrival: The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 73 tons week - on - week, an increase of 2.9%; the arrival volume at northern ports decreased by 157 tons, a decrease of 10.2% [73] - Freight Rate: Displays the historical data of iron ore freight rates from Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [75] - Domestic Ore Production (Estimated): The production of iron concentrate in 266 mines decreased by 0.2 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.28%; the inventory decreased by 2 tons [78] - Steel Mill Ore Fines Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization: The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.04%, and the average daily molten iron production decreased by 0.11 tons. The daily consumption of imported sintered ore fines increased by 0.84 tons, an increase of 1.42%; the daily consumption of domestic sintered ore fines decreased by 0.05 tons, a decrease of 0.61% [80] - Pig Iron Production: The daily average pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, along with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates [86] - Global Pig Iron Production: Displays the historical data of global, Chinese, and non - Chinese pig iron production [89] - Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production: Presents the historical data of non - Chinese pig iron production and the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates [94]
黑色金属周报：铁矿：供应季节性增强，反弹驱动有限-20250609
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-09 12:16