关注中美关税谈判，短期连粕震荡偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The global soybean fundamentals remained stable, with good weather in US soybean - growing areas, a relatively fast sowing speed, and decent good - quality rates. Brazilian soybean exports were strong, but the June export forecast of 12.55 million tons might be lower than last year. South American soybean exports squeezed the US soybean market, with last week's US soybean export net sales at only 198,000 tons, meeting expectations but decreasing month - on - month. The phone call between Chinese and US leaders on the 5th released positive signals, supporting the US soybean to close higher [6]. - In China, with the continuous increase in imported soybeans, the oil mill operating rate has returned to normal, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Recently, strong downstream pick - up has supported the spot soybean meal. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have entered the accumulation cycle. The soybean inventory has risen significantly to 5.8288 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.45%. The soybean meal inventory has slightly increased to 298,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.19% or 558,100 tons [6]. - Strategy: In the short term, US soybeans will fluctuate. From May to July in China, soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate has returned to normal, and the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Currently, strong downstream pick - up makes the spot market fluctuate. However, the low oil mill crushing profit supports the oil mills' sentiment to boost the soybean meal price, and the soybean meal futures market is strong. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area is basically certain, and the expected production reduction supports the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. At the same time, the development of China - US tariffs is favorable for far - term US soybeans. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal at low prices. Specifically, go long on soybean meal 09 in the range of 2900 - 3000 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on June 6, the CBOT soybean closed at 1058.00 cents per bushel, up 15.75 points from last week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.51%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 3010 yuan per ton, up 42 points from last week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.42% [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - Weather: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will return to normal. As of the week of June 1, the US soybean good - quality rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The US soybean planting rate was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%, compared with 76% the previous week, 77% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 80%. The US soybean emergence rate was 63%, compared with 50% the previous week, 53% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57% [13][21] - US Soybean Export: As of the week of May 29, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 194,000 tons, compared with 146,000 tons the previous week; the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 4000 tons, compared with 33,000 tons the previous week [13][25] - Argentine Soybean: As of June 5, the Argentine soybean harvest rate was 91%, compared with 84% last week and 92.2% in the same period last year [13][28] - Brazilian Soybean: The June export forecast of Brazilian soybeans is 12.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28 million tons. As the sales pressure of Brazilian soybeans eases, the near - month soybean premium has gradually stabilized [33] Supply - In the 22nd week (May 24 - May 30), a total of 38 ships, about 2.47 million tons of soybeans, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [13][36] Demand - In the 23rd week (May 31 - June 6), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.1%, 86,300 tons lower than the forecast. The soybean meal trading volume decreased to 477,600 tons, and the pick - up volume decreased to 804,700 tons [13][39] Inventory - In the 22nd week, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all increased. The soybean inventory reached 5.8288 million tons, an increase of 222,500 tons from last week, a 3.97% increase, and a year - on - year increase of 989,800 tons, a 20.45% increase. The soybean meal inventory reached 298,000 tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from last week, a 44.03% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 558,100 tons, a 65.19% decrease [13][42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the given text for detailed spread tracking analysis.