聚酯链日报：缺乏有利因素推动，PX、PTA或继续维持偏弱振荡-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the lack of favorable factors, PX and PTA may continue to maintain a weak oscillation. The supply of PX will return in large quantities in June and enter multiple maintenance periods in July. PTA has new plants about to be put into production, and the supply pressure will gradually return. The terminal demand is weakening marginally, and the PTA price may continue to be under pressure. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the market may continue to oscillate weakly in the current state [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On June 6, the PX main contract closed at 6,556.0 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 79.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,652.0 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 228.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.65 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 754.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 808.93 million meters. The current domestic PX operating rate is 78%, and that in Asia is 69.4%. However, the 1 - million - ton PX plant of Qingdao Lidong plans to increase the load to about 90% in June, the disproportionation plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical restarts and increases the load, the 700,000 - ton production capacity of Liaoyang Petrochemical that was shut down briefly restarted on May 26, and the 400,000 - ton production capacity of GS will restart in mid - June. The PX supply will return in large quantities in June and then enter multiple maintenance periods in July. PTA has new plants about to be put into production, and the supply pressure will gradually return. The terminal demand is weakening marginally, and the PTA price may continue to be under pressure [2] 3.1.2 Polyester - On June 6, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,394.0 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,500.0 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 106.0 yuan/ton. The total transaction volume (MA15) of the China Light Textile City showed a small - scale fluctuation during this period, dropping from 830.27 million meters on May 27 to 808.93 million meters on June 6. The market demand is relatively weak. It is expected that the polyester industry chain will remain volatile in the short term, and there is no obvious demand growth point to drive the price increase of the industry chain. Therefore, in the absence of strong driving factors, the market may continue to oscillate weakly in the current state [3] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures was 6,556 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the trading volume decreased by 3.91%, and the open interest decreased by 2.77%. The CFR price at the main port in China was 820.33 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the FOB price in South Korea was 794 US dollars/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day. The PX basis was 79 yuan/ton, down 16.84% from the previous day [4] - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures was 4,652 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day; the trading volume decreased by 3.08%, and the open interest decreased by 1.63%. The CFR price at the main port in China was 615 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The PTA basis was 228 yuan/ton, up 22.58% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, down 83.33% from the previous day; the 5 - 9 spread was - 114 yuan/ton, up 9.52% from the previous day; the 9 - 1 spread was 136 yuan/ton, down 1.45% from the previous day. The PTA import profit was - 537.48 yuan/ton, up 8.74% from the previous day [4] - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,394 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day; the trading volume increased by 19.74%, and the open interest increased by 0.59%. The mainstream spot price in the East China market was 6,500 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day. The PF basis was 106 yuan/ton, down 17.19% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 8 yuan/ton, up 63.64% from the previous day; the 5 - 9 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, down 112.50% from the previous day; the 9 - 1 spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 10.53% from the previous day [4] - Other products: The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.65 US dollars/barrel, up 2.08% from the previous day; the main contract of US crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, up 2.40% from the previous day. The CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 557.13 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of ethylene glycol was 4,410 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The price of polyester chips was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 1.10% from the previous day. The price of polyester bottle chips was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The price of polyester POY was 6,920 yuan/ton, down 1.14% from the previous day. The price of polyester DTY was 8,180 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The price of polyester FDY was 7,230 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day [4] - Processing spreads: The processing spread of naphtha was 50.66 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; that of PX was 263.2 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; that of PTA was 346.6 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The processing spreads of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased to varying degrees [5] - Light Textile City transaction volume: The total transaction volume on June 6 was 754 million meters, including 554 million meters of long - fiber fabrics and 200 million meters of short - fiber fabrics [5] - Industrial chain load rate: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on June 6 were 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively, all unchanged from the previous day [5] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber decreased by 11.26% to 8.35 days; the inventory days of polyester POY increased by 19.57% to 16.5 days; the inventory days of polyester FDY increased by 4.35% to 21.6 days; the inventory days of polyester DTY increased by 4.03% to 28.4 days [5] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On June 5, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate unchanged but may cut interest rates in the future. The Canadian dollar rose to a new high. The Fed's Beige Book reported that economic activity declined slightly in six regions, and enterprises generally expected future costs to rise at an accelerated pace. Trump commented on ADP data, calling on Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates. He also called for the complete cancellation of the debt ceiling and cooperation between the two parties. Trump had a 75 - minute phone call with Putin, revealing that Putin would respond firmly to the attack on a Russian airport, and he said he was unaware of the attack in advance [6] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand - On June 6, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 754.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%. The transaction volume of long - fiber fabrics was 554.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 200.0 million meters. On November 6, the 15 - day average sales - to - production ratio of polyester factories was 53.56% [7] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including PX main futures and basis, PX spot price, PTA main futures and basis, PTA spot price, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA futures monthly spread, short - fiber futures monthly spread, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber sales and production situation, polyester long - fiber sales and production situation, China Light Textile City transaction volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [8][10][12][14][15][19][21][22][23][24][25]