钢材期货周度报告：供需矛盾不大，成本支撑下移-20250609

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices adjusted within a narrow range, with the average national rebar price rising by 1 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, there was some restocking sentiment in the market. However, due to the decline in coking coal and coke, which dragged down finished products, market quotes adjusted weakly. Mid-week, raw materials stabilized and rebounded under the influence of stricter safety inspections. With few fundamental contradictions in building materials, prices fluctuated and stabilized [2][4]. - Considering the unchanged pattern of weak supply and demand in the steel market during the off-season, the rebound height of steel prices may be limited. Although the price rebounded from a low this week, the weekly line failed to effectively return above the 3000 mark, and the counterattack strength of long - position funds was insufficient, failing to reverse the downward trend for the time being [27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices adjusted within a narrow range this week, and the average national rebar price rose by 1 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, restocking sentiment emerged, but the decline in coking coal and coke dragged down finished products, leading to a weak adjustment in market quotes. Mid - week, raw materials stabilized and rebounded due to stricter safety inspections, and prices fluctuated and stabilized with few fundamental contradictions in building materials [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 6, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [6]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce organized the 2025 new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas [6]. - Recently, Zhang Yuzhuo, the director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, conducted intensive research on enterprises in industries such as energy, steel, metal minerals, and energy conservation and environmental protection [6]. - US President Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time. The steel and aluminum tariffs on imports from the UK will remain at 25% [6]. - From May 26 to June 1, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.08 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.094 million tons [6]. - In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 23 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons (a 4.9% decrease in daily output week - on - week); 21.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.913 million tons (a 3.5% decrease in daily output week - on - week); and 23.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.177 million tons (a 2.5% increase in daily output week - on - week) [6]. - In late May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 million tons (6.4% decrease) from the previous ten - day period [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 106,100 tons, higher than last week's 101,700 tons. Due to the upcoming heavy rainfall in the South and the college entrance examination, downstream construction plans slowed down, and procurement enthusiasm was poor [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The recent steel price has shown a phased rebound under the influence of the significant fluctuations in coking coal futures. Considering the unchanged pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season steel market, the rebound height of steel prices may be limited. The reference operating range is 2860 - 3020 [27]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].