国债期货日报：2025年6月资金利率下台阶-20250609

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Continue to hold and pay attention to short - end performance [1]. 3. Summary by Content Market Performance - Treasury bond futures rose in early trading, were affected by news in the afternoon, and closed higher. Structurally, long - end performed strongly during the day, with TS and TF main contracts flat and others rising. The central bank had a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities in the open market [1]. News - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on further ensuring and improving people's livelihood and addressing urgent concerns of the public [2]. Market Analysis - The capital interest rate dropped further. The central bank's net injection in the open - market in the morning led to a decline in the capital interest rate, and the overnight inter - bank anonymous rate fell below 1.4% to 1.35%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) rate declined, indicating improved liquidity. Currently, the bond market sentiment is good, but the relatively weak performance of short - term bonds does not match the market trend and NCD performance. If this structure continues, the upside potential of long - end bonds will be limited [3]. - There was a new round of China - US economic and trade negotiations in the UK this week. In the afternoon, false news of a China - US agreement caused a temporary drop in treasury bond futures prices. In the short - term, the biggest variable in the China - US negotiations may be a certain reduction of the 20% fentanyl tariff, but complete removal is unlikely. If the trade negotiation is favorable this week, it may be a case of "bad news being fully priced in" for the bond market [3]. Data | Contract | 2025 - 06 - 06 | 2025 - 06 - 05 | Today's Change | Last Week's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.448 | 102.434 | 0.014 | 102.35 | | TF2509 | 106.125 | 106.06 | 0.065 | 105.875 | | T2509 | 108.9 | 108.735 | 0.165 | 108.5 | | TL2509 | 119.72 | 119.36 | 0.36 | 118.75 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0733 | - 0.0721 | - 0.0012 | - 0.0794 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0287 | - 0.0084 | - 0.0203 | - 0.0397 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.2587 | - 0.0138 | 0.2725 | 0.3512 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.5255 | 0.6076 | - 0.0821 | 0.3512 | | DR001 | 1.4124 | 1.412 | 0.0004 | 0 | | DR007 | 1.5323 | 1.5509 | - 0.0186 | - 0.1007 | | DR014 | 1.5833 | 1.5892 | - 0.0059 | - 0.1352 | [3][4] Charts - The report includes charts on net basis and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts, long - end interest rate trends, treasury bond spreads (7Y - 2Y), US treasury bond trends, US - China spreads, exchange - traded fund prices, DR and policy anchors, and inter - bank capital transactions [5][10][12][15][16].