通惠期货铜日报：铜高位震荡延续，供给支撑需求压制-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a situation of supply - demand imbalance. The supply side is supported by smelter shutdowns and copper concentrate shortages, while the demand side is significantly suppressed by the off - season. In the context of the game between long and short positions, price increases are restricted by weak demand, and price decreases are limited by cost support. Attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm data on the US dollar, US tariff policies, and the acceptance of current prices by domestic buyers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On June 6, 2025, the SHFE main contract closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, showing a slight upward trend. The LME 3 - month copper price was reported at 9,707.5 US dollars/ton, continuing the upward trend. The spot premium and discount showed obvious differentiation, and the LME (0 - 3) basis strengthened to 93.15 US dollars/ton, indicating tight near - end supply [2]. - The LME open interest decreased by 1,146 lots to 283,000 lots, with a slight contraction in market trading activity. The SHFE copper inter - month spread BACK structure remained at around 100 yuan/ton, and the import loss widened to 1,600 yuan/ton, stimulating smelters to accelerate exports and increasing short - term liquidity pressure [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation - The shortage of copper concentrate has intensified, and domestic smelting capacity is being restored. The cathode copper output of Western Copper increased by 18% year - on - year to 67,400 tons, and the acceptance of the bonded mixed ore project at Tangshan Port may relieve long - term raw material pressure [3]. - The entire copper industry chain has entered the traditional off - season, with generally declining operating rates. The copper rod operating rate in June is expected to drop to 47.11%, and the enameled wire operating rate is expected to drop by 4.5 percentage points to 67.76%. The operating rates of wire and cable and copper strip also weakened. High copper prices have curbed downstream procurement, with demand mainly from rigid needs and long - term contracts. The demand for lithium - ion copper foil is relatively strong [3]. - LME inventory increased by 591 tons to 32,278 tons, COMEX inventory increased to 186,883 short tons, and overseas visible inventory accumulated marginally. SHFE inventory decreased by 5,600 tons to 132,400 tons, with continued but slowed destocking in China. The SMM national social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 149,000 tons compared with last week, showing initial signs of inventory accumulation in the off - season [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM 1 copper (premium copper) was 78,970 yuan/ton on June 6, 2025, up 0.65% from the previous day, and the premium decreased by 10% to 135 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 20% to 30 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper remained at - 30 yuan/ton [6]. - The LME (0 - 3) basis was 70 US dollars/ton, down 25.02% from the previous day. The SHFE copper price was 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, and the LME copper price was 9,671 US dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [6]. - LME inventory increased by 1.87% to 32,278 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 4.06% to 132,400 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.53% to 187,877 short tons [6]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [7][9][12].