SDR(SZ:000603) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-06-09 12:44Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1][5][63] Core Views - The silver market is experiencing a rebound, while the gold-silver ratio is correcting from high levels. Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to underwhelming U.S. economic data and reduced safe-haven demand amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions. However, medium to long-term prospects remain positive as persistent inflation in the U.S. suggests a "stagflation-recession" phase, with gold prices likely to rise [5][63]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The precious metals sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.70 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 3.58%. The leading stock was Shengda Resources, which rose by 17.29% [5][17]. - As of June 6, COMEX gold settled at $3,346.60 per ounce, up 0.94%, and COMEX silver at $36.14 per ounce, up 9.42%. SHFE gold closed at ¥783.24 per gram, up 1.48%, and SHFE silver at ¥8,850 per kilogram, up 7.69% [5][16][17]. Economic Data Tracking - U.S. economic indicators for May were below expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 (expected 49.2) and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 (expected 52.0). The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [5][29][30]. - Inflation remains moderate, with April's CPI at 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%, and core CPI steady at 2.8% [5][29][30]. Gold Investment Trends - As of May 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.383 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. Gold ETF holdings rose to 1,367.89 tons, a 2.11-ton increase [5][52][54]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased to 187,900 contracts, up from 174,200 contracts [5][57]. Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio as of June 6 is 92.30, down 6.78 from previous levels, indicating a potential correction in silver prices relative to gold [5][59].