Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-09 12:49Group 1: Electric Vehicles and Energy Storage - The demand for lithium batteries remains resilient, with solid-state and heavy-duty trucks experiencing increased market activity. In 2024, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 19%, with significant growth anticipated in 2025 as major automakers launch new platforms and models, alongside declining battery costs. The total shipments of power, storage, and consumer batteries are projected to reach 1.6 TWh in 2025, an 18% year-on-year increase [4][24][21] - In 2025, the global demand for power batteries is expected to reach 1,173 GWh, a 16% year-on-year growth. The demand for energy storage is driven by improved economic viability and increasing overseas demand, particularly in Europe and the United States [10][17][24] - The domestic market for energy storage is benefiting from the rapid development of wind and solar installations, as well as electricity market reforms. The global energy storage demand is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on peak-valley price differences enhancing economic viability [24][21] Group 2: Wind Power - The wind power industry is experiencing high growth, with significant increases in both volume and price for components. The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a substantial rise in the output of land-based wind components, while offshore wind projects are anticipated to gain momentum as construction peaks in the second quarter [4][6] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is gradually improving in supply and demand, with a notable increase in component demand driven by policy adjustments and market dynamics. The industry is currently in a critical phase of "supply-demand rebalancing," with short-term improvements observed, although complete resolution of overcapacity will take time [4][6] - The profitability of the photovoltaic sector is expected to improve in the first quarter of 2025, with a focus on leading technology companies in battery production and those benefiting from supply-side reforms [4][6] Group 4: Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes for 2025: true growth companies such as CATL and Gotion High-Tech, companies benefiting from cyclical recovery like Hunan Youneng, and new technology firms such as Xiamen Tungsten and Contemporary Amperex Technology [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and suggests monitoring leading companies in the silicon material and inverter sectors, as well as those with significant export advantages [4][6]