Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices strengthened at the end of the week after fluctuations, with tariff expectation pricing disturbing the market again. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, but this driver is not strong enough to sustain the upward trend of the market. The US economy is waiting for "hard data", with the manufacturing sector declining, and attention should be paid to changes in employment conditions. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive", but the interest rate is still at a restrictive level, and the next rate cut may be a "recessionary rate cut" [5][85]. - The problem of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, and the refined copper output in May reached a new high. Domestic demand has seasonally weakened, the copper product operating rate has declined, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories has weakened. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games. After the price increase of COMEX copper, the price relationship is COMEX copper > LME copper > Shanghai copper, and the domestic spot buying has weakened [6][86]. - It is recommended to consider selling CALL options for the near - month contracts and buying PUT options for the far - month contracts [6][86]. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In May, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's manufacturing increased by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but it has been below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months, and the demand side is under pressure due to tariff games [12]. - The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, and the price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has widened to over $1000, but the driving force is not as strong as the previous time [5][13][85]. Industry Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In December 2024, the global copper mine output was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%, and the annual output in 2024 was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, the global copper mine output was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons in March 2025 and 180,000 tons in February [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores; from January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 10.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [24]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - As of June 6, the copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - $43.29 per dry ton, an increase of $0.27 from the previous period. The second mid - year negotiation between Chinese smelters and Antofagasta has not started yet [28]. Refined Copper Output - In May, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, a rise of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative output increased by 544,800 tons, a rise of 11.09%. It is estimated that the output in June will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.63%, but a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, a rise of 12.55% [36]. Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%; in December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%; in December 2024, the export was 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97% [42]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In April 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% but a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81% [45]. Refined - Scrap Spread - In May, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 29.92%, lower than the expected 32.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13%. In June, as orders approach the delivery period, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises may increase slightly [48]. Consumption - end - Power and Grid Investment: In 2024, the cumulative power investment from January to December was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and the grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [52]. - Air - conditioners: In December 2024, the monthly output of air - conditioners was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; from January to December 2024, the cumulative output was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to April 2025, the output was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, with a decreasing growth rate [56]. - Automobiles: In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. In April 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 4.429 million and 4.3 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 48.3% and 46.2% respectively [60]. - Real Estate: In 2024, the cumulative real estate completion area from January to December was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In April 2025, the completion area was 156 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%, and the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year - on - year [62]. Other Elements Inventory - As of June 6, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 427,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,614 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 132,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,400 tons; COMEX copper inventory increased by 7,250 tons to 187,900 tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 58,000 tons as of June 5, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous week [65]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 3, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 24,094 lots, a weekly increase of 1,513 lots. The non - commercial long position was 71,249 lots, a weekly increase of 1,305 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 47,155 lots, a weekly decrease of 208 lots [69]. Premium and Discount - As of June 6, the LME copper spot premium was $69.84 per ton. The LME copper spot has turned to a premium and is rising. Attention should be paid to the potential risk of a short squeeze in the LME market. The domestic spot market has a large price difference between different brands, and attention should be paid to the risk of an expanded monthly spread next week [79]. Basis - As of June 6, 2025, the basis between the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper and the continuous third - month contract was 80 yuan per ton [81].
铜周报：美国就业数据持稳，铜价仍震荡-20250609
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-09 12:44