策略周报：淘汰缓慢，梅雨天气蛋价继续探底-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a weak state. Supply pressure is increasing due to the release of new production capacity and slow elimination of backward capacity, while demand is limited after the Dragon Boat Festival. The cost of feed is around 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty. The breeding profit is at a seasonal low. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds and mainly conduct JD reverse spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Review - The egg futures market shows a positive market structure, with the near - month contracts following the decline of the spot market and the far - month contracts oscillating weakly. The market is still in a weak state, and although there are bottom - fishing behaviors in the market, they are ineffective. The market maintains a structure of near - weak and far - strong [6]. 3.2 Spot Review - Last week, the egg spot market was generally stable, but there was an adjustment over the weekend, mainly led by the decline in northern sales areas. The production areas were relatively stable, while the egg prices in southern production areas, especially those near the plum - rain area, continued to decline. After the festival, the pulling effect of the sales areas on the spot market is expected to be weak, and the spot price will continue to search for a bottom [13]. 3.3 Supply - New production capacity: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, which is basically at a high level, and the new volume is higher than the historical average [18]. - Elimination of production capacity: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination of production capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [18]. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory of laying hens remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new production capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination is delayed, which may lead to an increase in phased supply [18]. 3.4 Elimination End - The elimination of backward production capacity has started but has not entered an accelerated phase. The price of eliminated chickens has fallen from a high level, the elimination volume has been increasing but is still at a four - year low, and the elimination age is around 520 days, showing an obvious downward trend [21]. 3.5 Other Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - Seasonality: The market is in a transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and a certain turnaround is expected to occur in mid - June [25]. - Production area: Currently, producers in the production areas are actively selling. With the increasing high - temperature weather, new chickens are constantly starting to lay eggs [25]. - Consumption end: The stocking is over, the overall demand is average, and the weather factor suppresses the egg price [25]. - Substitute products: Vegetable prices are about to enter a seasonally strong stage, which will support the egg price to some extent. Pork prices continue to weaken, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have shown a phased increase [27]. 3.6 Cost & Profit - Cost end: The price of corn is running at a high level, and the spot price of soybean meal is stable with a slight decline. The overall cost has oscillated and slightly decreased. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty [30]. - Breeding profit: The breeding profit has fallen below the feed cost and reached the comprehensive breeding cost. The seasonal weakness has not ended. The negative feedback of production capacity caused by profit losses is gradually taking effect, and attention should be paid to the elimination of backward production capacity [31]. 3.7 Capital and Basis - Capital: Short - term funds continue to operate at a high level without signs of leaving the market, and short - selling funds have obvious suppression [34]. - Basis: The basis is running at a low level. Currently, the overall contract shows a premium structure, which will continue to suppress the market in the short term. The basis has a strengthening trend in the later stage, which depends on when the spot price stabilizes [36]. 3.8 Spread - The decline of the spot price suppresses the near - month contracts, and the strategy is mainly to conduct reverse spreads in the phased period [39].