产地棕油供需均增&中加关系缓和，菜棕价差回吐此前涨幅

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of domestic and international soybean - related products moved slightly upward, while palm oil stopped rising and consolidated, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil broke downward. The expected increase in production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in May, along with the increase in production and exports at the beginning of June, and the supply - demand growth in Indonesia in March, indicate that the supply side pressure is gradually increasing. The demand side shows a significant increase in India's palm oil imports in May and continued improvement in exports in June. With the progress of China - Canada talks, the market sentiment has eased, and rapeseed oil has oscillated after a rapid decline. The supply and demand of palm oil in the producing areas are both increasing, lacking clear direction, and it is difficult for palm oil to rise or fall in the short term. The strength of rapeseed oil and palm oil has reversed in the short term, and the spread in September has significantly narrowed. It is advisable to hold the strategy of widening the spread cautiously [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Palm oil: Supply and demand in the palm - producing areas are both increasing, and with the easing of China - Canada relations, the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has given back its previous gains. In the producing areas, institutions expect a 3% increase in Malaysian palm oil production, a 17.9% increase in exports, and a 7.74% increase in inventory in May. At the beginning of June, production increased by 19% and exports by 3%. In Indonesia, the palm oil inventory at the end of March was 2.04 million tons. In the domestic market, the spot trading volume of soybean oil was average last week, while that of palm oil slightly increased. The supply increase led to the accumulation of soybean oil inventory to 750,000 tons and palm oil inventory to 360,000 tons. In terms of strategy, the sowing of new - season US soybeans is nearly complete with a high good - rate, and CBOT soybeans are trading around the 1050 mark. The supply side pressure is increasing as the producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle and will reach the production peak in the third quarter. The demand side shows that India's palm oil imports increased significantly in May, and the export situation in June has continued to improve. With the progress of China - Canada talks, the market sentiment has eased, and rapeseed oil has oscillated after a rapid decline. The supply and demand of palm oil in the producing areas are both increasing, and it is difficult for palm oil to rise or fall in the short term. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has significantly narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the strategy of widening the spread cautiously [7]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price centers of domestic and international soybean - related products moved slightly upward, domestic and international palm oil stopped rising and consolidated, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil broke downward [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - US Soybeans: As of the week ending June 1, the US soybean sowing progress was 84% (market expectation: 86%, previous year: 77%, five - year average: 80%), the emergence rate was 63% (previous year: 53%, five - year average: 57%), and the good - rate was 67% (market expectation: 68%). As of the week ending June 3, about 16% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 17% the previous week. The Brazilian soybean premium rebounded to around 70 cents per bushel at the beginning of June [11][12]. - Malaysian Palm Oil: In April, the production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil all increased. In May, institutions expect a 3% increase in production to 1.74 million tons, a 17.9% increase in exports to 1.3 million tons, and a 7.74% increase in inventory to 2.01 million tons. At the beginning of June, production increased by 19.09% and exports increased by 2.63%. [18][22]. - Indonesian Palm Oil: In March, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.8 million tons, exports were 2.88 million tons, consumption was 2.1 million tons, and inventory decreased to 2.04 million tons. From January to April, Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a year - on - year decrease of 5.37% [23]. - Indian Market: In May, India's edible oil imports increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports increased by 87% to 600,000 tons. India has halved the basic import tariff on crude edible oil to 10% since May 31 [28][31]. - Domestic Oilseed Pressing: Last week, rapeseed oil broke downward, and the spot and futures crushing profits of imported rapeseed dropped below zero. The inversion of domestic palm oil import profits continued to narrow. The oil mill's soybean crushing capacity reached 2.2 - 2.3 million tons in late May and early June, the highest in the past three years. The soybean inventory was 5.6 - 5.9 million tons and is expected to continue rising. The rapeseed crushing capacity in late May was 90,000 tons, and the rapeseed inventory increased slightly to 230,000 tons [33][36][40]. - Domestic Oil Inventory: As of the end of May, soybean oil inventory increased to 750,000 tons, rapeseed oil inventory was stable at around 840,000 tons, palm oil inventory rebounded to 360,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 1.81 million tons, compared with 1.7 million tons in the previous year [43]. - Domestic Oil Spot Price and Trading Volume: Last week, the spot prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated within a narrow range, while rapeseed oil declined. As of June 6, the price of soybean oil was 7,998 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.57% from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8,617 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.14%; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The trading volume of soybean oil decreased, while that of palm oil maintained a rigid demand. The trading volume of soybean oil was 59,000 tons (previous week: 75,200 tons), palm oil was 3,610 tons (previous week: 2,963 tons), and rapeseed oil was 1,000 tons (previous week: 5,000 tons) [46][48]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No relevant content provided other than the title.