Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 891 tons week-on-week to 17,471 tons, with an increase in lithium spodumene production. Due to the reduction in lithium ore costs, there is an expectation of an increase in non-integrated supply in June. In May, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 0.97 million tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 38%. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 861 tons week-on-week to 132,400 tons, with inventory in smelters, downstream, and other sectors at 57,100 tons, 41,100 tons, and 34,200 tons respectively. Smelters and other sectors had a slight inventory build-up, and the overall inventory is at a high level. In the medium to long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years remains significant [5]. - Demand side: According to research, downstream demand in June is basically flat month-on-month, with a decline in production scheduling in the power sector and some rush-to-export behavior in energy storage cells. The terminal market maintains a relatively fast growth rate. From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 726,000 units, with a retail penetration rate of 53.5% [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.7% week-on-week, and the price of lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.8% week-on-week. The decline in lithium ore prices has slowed down. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to support prices, while some traders are eager to sell due to factors such as hedging or inventory pressure [5]. - Strategy: After lithium prices fell to a low level, supply disruptions increased, but they are not enough to reverse the oversupply situation. Near the end of the second quarter, both upstream and downstream have certain inventory management needs. High inventory exerts some pressure on lithium prices, but further downward movement is likely to trigger supply disruptions. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the ore end and downstream production scheduling [5]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - Lithium spodumene imports in April increased slightly month-on-month: From January to April, China imported 2.315 million tons of lithium spodumene. In April, China imported 622,900 tons of lithium spodumene, a month-on-month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 1.179 million tons were imported from Australia, accounting for 50.9%; 343,000 tons from South Africa, accounting for 14.3%; and 315,000 tons from Zimbabwe, accounting for 13.6% [9]. - The decline in lithium concentrate prices has slowed down: This week, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.7% week-on-week, and the price of lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.8% week-on-week. Overseas mines on the lithium spodumene side have a strong sentiment to support prices, with the SC6 quotation remaining above $630 per ton. Some traders are eager to sell due to factors such as hedging or inventory pressure [12]. - China's lithium carbonate production in June may increase slightly month-on-month: According to SMM, the total production of lithium carbonate in May decreased by 2% month-on-month and increased by 15% year-on-year. By raw material, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and recycling decreased by 4% and 13% month-on-month respectively, while the production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica and salt lakes increased by 2% and 3% month-on-month respectively. According to research, the profitability of subcontractors has improved, and the production of the salt lake side has increased with the warming of the weather. It is expected that China's lithium carbonate production will increase slightly month-on-month in June [16]. - Lithium carbonate imports: From January to April, China imported 78,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. Among them, 53,200 tons were imported from Chile, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and 22,600 tons from Argentina, a year-on-year increase of 80.7%. According to Chilean customs, the scale of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in May was 9,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 38%. It is expected that this part of lithium carbonate will arrive in China from late June to July [20]. - Spot prices decreased month-on-month: This week, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 60,200 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8%. Market transactions were relatively dull. Lithium salt factories were reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This week, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 58,600 yuan per ton, a slight decrease from last week [21]. Demand Side - The global new energy vehicle market started well: The new energy vehicle industry accounts for about 62% of the global lithium carbonate demand. According to Rho Motion, in Q1 2025, global electric vehicle sales reached 4.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Among them, sales in Europe in Q1 were 900,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22%; sales in North America were 500,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%; and sales in China were 2.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36%. The Chinese and European markets showed strong growth, while the growth rate in the US declined due to political factors [26]. - The production of power batteries maintained a relatively high growth rate: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 0.03% and a year-on-year increase of 49.0%. From January to April, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 444.6 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 67.1%. From January to April, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China were 403.9 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 73.7%. Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 303.9 GWh, accounting for 75.2% of the total sales, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 56.8%; the cumulative sales of other batteries were 100.0 GWh, accounting for 24.8% of the total sales, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 157.8% [36]. - China's mobile phone shipments increased slightly year-on-year: In the first quarter of 2025, the shipments of China's smartphone market were 71.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. From January to December 2024, the production of electronic computer complete machines in China's first quarter was 85.322 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with two consecutive quarters of positive growth. Behind this data is the upgrading of the entire industry chain driven by technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence [41]. - The mandatory energy storage allocation for new energy was cancelled: In February, the newly installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 1.24 GW/2.89 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 153.5%. The winning bid scale of energy storage continued to grow at a high speed year-on-year, with the total scale of energy storage systems and EPC reaching 4.6 GW/14.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49% in capacity scale. The "531" rush to install contributed a certain increment. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of New Energy Storage", clearly stating that "new energy projects shall not be required to be equipped with energy storage compulsorily". After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, the energy storage allocation ratio will decrease, which may affect the annual demand for lithium iron phosphate by about 3% [45]. - Downstream production scheduling in June remained stable month-on-month: This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 3,470 yuan per ton, an increase of 240 yuan per ton from last week. The profit of ternary material enterprises increased slightly month-on-month, but the overall profitability was not optimistic. According to research, downstream demand in June was basically flat month-on-month, with a decline in production scheduling in the power sector and some rush-to-export behavior in energy storage cells [51]. Other Indicators - Non-integrated lithium salt factories are operating at a loss: Recently, with a slight decline in the price of lithium concentrate, the production cost of lithium salt factories has slightly decreased. The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased lithium spodumene is 69,464 yuan per ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1,867 yuan per ton. At the current lithium price, manufacturers processing with purchased lithium spodumene have fallen into a loss. The theoretical production profit of manufacturers processing with purchased lithium spodumene is -8,764 yuan per ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,267 yuan per ton [48]. - The basis has narrowed this week: This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was -240, with the spot at a discount to the futures. This week, the closing price of the main futures contract of lithium carbonate was 60,440 yuan per ton, and the basis of the contract has narrowed. The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained flat month-on-month, with a price difference of 1,600 yuan per ton [54]. - The price difference between contracts has widened: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the price difference between the first continuous contract and the near-month contract was negative. The price difference between the first continuous contract and the near-month contract was -40, the same as last week, and the price differences between different contracts have widened [57].
碳酸锂周报：成本支撑减弱，锂价弱势震荡-20250609
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-09 12:52