Guoyuan Securities·2025-06-09 13:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has seen a decline of 2.12% over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.22 percentage points [2][14]. - Within the sector, soft drinks (+9.45%), snacks (+5.48%), and other alcoholic beverages (+4.98%) have shown the highest gains, while dairy products (-3.81%), liquor (-3.64%), and fermented seasoning products (-1.26%) have experienced the largest declines [2][14]. - Notable individual stock performances include Junyao Health (+72.44%), Hainan Coconut Island (+20.26%), and Miaokelando (+19.95%) leading in gains, while Wufangzhai (-10.35%), ST Jiajia (-6.92%), and Shanxi Fenjiu (-5.41%) faced the largest losses [2][14]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage industry in A-shares has underperformed compared to major indices, with a year-to-date decline of 2.57% [14]. - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with soft drinks and snacks showing resilience while liquor and dairy face challenges [2][14]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides pricing data for key products, such as the price of Feitian Moutai at 2,130 RMB for original boxes and 2,050 RMB for bulk, reflecting a decrease of 25 RMB and 50 RMB respectively over two weeks [3][29]. - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is reported at 3.06 RMB per kilogram, down 8.4% year-on-year [36]. Key Events Tracking - The report notes that the food manufacturing sector's profit increased by 1.1% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, with total revenue reaching 713.58 billion RMB [4][55]. - Performance in the e-commerce space during the Tmall 618 event shows strong sales for brands like Three Squirrels and Good Products Store [4][55]. Investment Recommendations - For the liquor segment, the report suggests focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions, such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while also considering regional leaders with favorable competitive dynamics [10][56]. - In the broader consumer goods category, the report highlights the rising popularity of yellow wine and the seasonal uptick in beer consumption, alongside strong performance in snack foods and energy drinks [10][56].