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年初以来专项债发行加快,关注基建稳增长
Changjiang Securities·2025-06-09 13:15

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [10]. Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing a slight decline in the PMI, but there is a notable recovery in the new orders and employment indices. The overall PMI for May is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, while the new orders index has increased by 3.7 percentage points to 43.3% [7][46]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative issuance of 1.64 trillion yuan by June 6, 2025, which is 480.1 billion yuan more than the previous year, indicating a 37% progress rate, 7.5 percentage points faster than last year [7][8]. - The report highlights that the construction industry PMI has been on a downward trend since 2020, and future improvements may depend on policy changes in real estate and infrastructure [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment. The construction industry's business activity index is at 51.0%, with a decrease in new orders and employment indices [7][46]. Special Bonds and Funding - As of June 6, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds is 1.64 trillion yuan, with a focus on municipal and industrial park infrastructure (30.0%), land reserves (7.8%), and shantytown renovations (7.2%) [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the issuance of special bonds will continue to increase in 2025, with a planned issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan, which is 500 billion yuan more than the previous year [7][8]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on central and state-owned enterprises and high-quality sector leaders, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge and China State Construction, which are expected to provide stable growth and high dividend yields [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of key companies in the construction sector, particularly those with strong fundamentals [9].