宏观偏暖原油偏强，关注伊核协议进展

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows short - term strength due to geopolitical and macro factors but faces medium - term pressure from OPEC+ production increases and the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - The styrene market is bearish in the medium term due to cost - side pressure and a supply - demand imbalance [7]. - The rubber market has a bearish medium - term outlook because of supply increases in the main producing areas and weak terminal demand [8]. - The synthetic rubber market is also bearish in the medium term due to raw material supply pressure and weak demand [12]. - The PX market has a relatively strong fundamental outlook in the short term, but the medium - term situation depends on the progress of maintenance and crude oil prices [18]. - The PTA market has weakened supply - demand conditions compared to before, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - The PP market has weak demand in the off - season and an expected increase in supply, and cost fluctuations related to crude oil need to be monitored [22]. - The methanol market has medium - term pressure due to high domestic production and inventory accumulation, and investors should wait for short - selling opportunities [26]. - The PVC market has a bearish fundamental situation due to weak downstream demand and stable supply [27]. - The EG market has short - term support from supply tightening and demand, but the medium - term situation is uncertain [31]. - The plastic market is bearish in the medium term due to expected supply increases [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Medium - term supply surplus is expected due to OPEC+ production increases, but short - term prices are supported by geopolitical and macro factors. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After breaking through the previous high of 470, the short - term structure has changed. The short - term strategy is to stop losses on short positions [3]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The cost side is under pressure as pure benzene inventory is at a 5 - year high, and the supply - demand situation is bearish with high supply and weak demand [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level at 7270 is still valid. The short - term strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 7270 [7]. (3) Rubber - Logic: The sharp drop in Thai glue prices verifies the supply increase after the start of the harvest season in the main producing areas, and terminal demand is weak [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 14000, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 13800 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The synthetic rubber market is affected by the expected increase in butadiene supply and weak demand from the tire industry [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 11470, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 11470 [14]. (5) PX - Logic: The short - term supply - demand situation is strong due to the restart of production and maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the cost drive of crude oil [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to look for opportunities to short after the rebound ends [18]. (6) PTA - Logic: The supply has increased with the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is relatively weak. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand situation has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure level is 4720, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4720 [20]. (7) PP - Logic: Demand is weak in the off - season, and supply is expected to increase due to new device production. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations related to crude oil [22]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 6980, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 6980 [22]. (8) Methanol - Logic: High domestic production and inventory accumulation lead to medium - term pressure on the market [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support level has risen to 2250. The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the price breaks through the support level [26]. (9) PVC - Logic: The downstream demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn, and the supply is at a normal level, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [27]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 4980, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4850 [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply has tightened due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and demand from the polyester industry is acceptable in the short term. There is short - term support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level has been lowered to 4335, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 4335 [31]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The short - term supply is relatively low due to device maintenance, but there is a large expected increase in supply in June and the second half of the year, so the medium - term outlook is bearish [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 7120, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 7120 [34].