Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Huaxi Securities view is that the cost - performance of certificates of deposit has increased. It is recommended to maintain the duration and wait for the opportunity of interest rate decline. The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral to bullish, and the sentiment of sellers and buyers is approaching a new high for the year. The interest rate view remains unchanged, and three variables need to be focused on in the follow - up [3][4][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.37, and the unweighted index is 0.41, up 0.13 from last week. The overall institutional view is neutral to bullish, with 13 bullish, 16 neutral, and 1 bearish. 43% of institutions are bullish, believing that the bond market starts a new round of easing expectations and short - term interest rates have downward space; 53% are neutral, stating that the bull - bear forces are balanced, trading opportunities are limited, and the market will continue to fluctuate; 3% are bearish, thinking that the bond market has over - priced the interest - rate cut expectation and yields may rise [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - This week's buyer sentiment index is 0.35, up 0.25 from last week, with a neutral - to - bullish view. 14 institutions are bullish and 11 are neutral. 56% of institutions are bullish due to the central bank's reverse - repurchase operations, loose funds, and increased non - bank allocation demand; 44% are neutral because of Sino - US relations, abundant market liquidity, and potential impacts of growth policies on the bond market [13]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include end - of - quarter wealth management redemptions and tariff policies. End - of - quarter wealth management redemptions lead to weak buying of credit bonds, and tariff policies may cause the credit bond market to fluctuate narrowly due to the approaching expiration of tariff exemptions [17][18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions' overall view this week is neutral to bullish, with 3 bullish and 13 neutral. 19% of institutions are bullish as the economy stabilizes, the equity market has limited downside, and the "asset shortage" in the bond market drives a shift to the convertible bond market; 81% are neutral because the equity market has a bottom and resistance, and the convertible bond market may fluctuate [21]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices have risen across the board. As of June 6, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.45 yuan, 106.14 yuan, 108.93 yuan, and 119.78 yuan respectively, up 0.06 yuan, 0.12 yuan, 0.20 yuan, and 0.37 yuan from last Friday. - Open interest has increased across the board. As of June 6, the open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 117,000 lots, 145,000 lots, 177,000 lots, and 97,000 lots respectively, an increase of 5,449 lots, 7,503 lots, 12,481 lots, and 3,311 lots from last Friday. - Trading volume has decreased for all contracts except TS. As of June 6, the 5 - day moving average trading volume of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 79.4 billion yuan, 61.8 billion yuan, 65.8 billion yuan, and 85.9 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 4.2 billion yuan for TS and decreases of 2.5 billion yuan, 13.8 billion yuan, and 11.7 billion yuan for TF, T, and TL respectively from last Friday. - The trading - to - open - interest ratio has decreased across the board. As of June 6, the 5 - day moving average trading - to - open - interest ratio of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 0.35, 0.44, 0.39, and 0.91 respectively, down 0.01, 0.05, 0.09, and 0.13 from last Friday [23][24]. 2.2 Cash Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year treasury bonds has decreased, with a rate of 3.19% on June 6, down 0.02 percentage points from last week and up 0.21 percentage points from Monday. The weekly average turnover rate is 3.19%. The weekly average turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has increased, reaching 0.99% on June 6, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 0.15 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has decreased, with a rate of 0.92% on June 6, up 0.65 percentage points from last week and down 0.53 percentage points from Monday [32][35]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of the main contracts has widened. As of June 6, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.07 yuan, - 0.03 yuan, + 0.03 yuan, and + 0.53 yuan respectively, up 0.01 yuan, 0 yuan, 0.30 yuan, and 0.01 yuan from last Friday. - The net basis of the main contracts has widened. As of June 6, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.09 yuan, - 0.08 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, and + 0.07 yuan respectively, down 0.03 yuan, 0.04 yuan, 0.03 yuan, and 0.07 yuan from last Friday. - The IRR of the main contracts has decreased. As of June 6, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.68%, and 1.34% respectively, down 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.05%, and 0.09% from last Friday [40][44]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - For the inter - delivery spread, except for the TS contract which has widened, the spreads of other main contracts have narrowed. As of June 6, the near - far spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are - 0.13 yuan, - 0.29 yuan, - 0.19 yuan, and - 0.73 yuan respectively, up 0.04 yuan, 0 yuan, 0.03 yuan, and - 0.06 yuan from last Friday. - For the inter - variety spread, except for the 2TS - TF contract which has narrowed, the spreads of other main contracts have widened. As of June 6, 2TS - TF, 2TF - T, 4TS - T, and 3*T - TL are 98.77 yuan, 103.35 yuan, 300.89 yuan, and 206.98 yuan respectively, down 0.02 yuan, up 0.06 yuan, up 0.01 yuan, and up 0.25 yuan from last Friday [52][53].
债市情绪面周报（6月第2周）：债市情绪接近年内新高-20250609
Huaan Securities·2025-06-09 13:30