国际贸易数据点评：二轮抢出口延续但幅度稍显温和

Trade Performance - In May, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from April's growth rate[2] - The trade surplus for May expanded to $103.22 billion due to a deeper decline in imports[2] - Imports fell by 3.4% year-on-year, with a significant drop in crude oil imports by 22.1%[4] U.S.-China Trade Relations - Despite a temporary suspension of tariff increases, China's exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 34.5%, a decline of 13.5 percentage points from April[3] - The primary method for China's continued export activity is through offshore collaborative supply chains, particularly with ASEAN countries[3] - Exports to the EU and the UK improved, rising by 3.8% and 13.1% respectively[3] Sector Analysis - Mid-range consumer goods continued to decline due to previous production slowdowns, contributing negatively to export growth[4] - The semiconductor and electronics sectors showed resilience, with a contribution to exports increasing by 0.6 percentage points[4] - The automotive sector experienced a resurgence in exports, with a contribution increase of 0.7 percentage points[4] Future Outlook - The second quarter is expected to maintain high export growth rates, but uncertainties loom for the second half of the year[5] - The U.S. government's new tax legislation indicates a continued intent to shift advanced supply chains back to the U.S.[5] - Risks include potential global trade policy uncertainties that could lead to lower-than-expected export growth[5]