2025年5月进出口数据点评：出口增速为何回落？

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's exports reached $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from April's 8.1% growth[2][3] - The decline in export growth is attributed to high base effects, seasonal factors, and a slowdown in global trade demand, with the global manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.6[3][4] - High-tech products contributed more significantly to export growth compared to labor-intensive products, with high-tech exports growing by 4.9%[12][14] Import Trends - Imports in May 2025 totaled $212.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, falling short of the expected 0.3% growth[2][16] - The decline in imports is influenced by weak domestic demand and falling prices of bulk commodities, with significant drops in iron ore (down 12.5%) and coal (down 38.7%) imports[16][18] - High-end manufacturing imports, such as automatic data processing equipment and rubber, showed strong growth, increasing by 47.6% and 40% respectively[16][18] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for May 2025 was $103.22 billion, an increase from the previous month's surplus of $96.18 billion[2] Market Outlook - Future export growth is expected to be supported by the release of previously accumulated orders following the Geneva talks, with a focus on diversifying markets in ASEAN, Africa, and the Gulf Cooperation Council[19][20] - Despite the current resilience in exports, long-term pressures remain due to high tariffs and ongoing trade tensions, particularly with the U.S.[20][24]