5月外贸数据点评：上半年出口无虞

Export Performance - In May, China's total exports amounted to $316.1 billion, with a trade surplus of $103.22 billion[6] - Year-on-year export growth in May was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 5%[8] - The two-year average growth rate for exports continued to rise, reaching 6.1% in May[8] Trade Relations - Exports to ASEAN and EU showed resilience, with EU exports growing by 12% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall export growth[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5% year-on-year, negatively impacting overall export performance by 5 percentage points[8] Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products saw a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, while high-tech and labor-intensive products experienced declines of 4.9% and 2.5%, respectively[8] - Consumer goods such as mobile phones, home appliances, and computers showed weak export performance, negatively affecting overall export growth[8] Import Trends - Imports in May decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with agricultural products showing a positive growth of 0.7%[8] - The trade surplus expanded to $103.22 billion due to the combination of rising exports and declining imports[8] Future Outlook - Overall export resilience is expected to continue into June, driven by the recovery in exports to the US as trade negotiations progress[8] - The outcome of US trade negotiations will significantly influence export performance in the second half of the year[8] Risk Factors - Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies poses a risk to China's export outlook, with potential impacts on re-export trade[7][8]