海外经济政策跟踪：欧央行如期降息，美联储降息仍谨慎

Economic Overview - The U.S. job market remains stable, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, exceeding market expectations of 126,000[6] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.24%, the highest since October 2021, while the labor participation rate fell to 62.4%[6] - In Europe, the Eurozone's HICP inflation rate dropped to 1.9% in May, below the expected 2%[17] Market Performance - Major stock markets saw gains last week (June 2-6, 2025): Hang Seng Index up 2.2%, S&P 500 up 1.5%, and emerging markets index up 1.9%[3] - Commodity prices rose significantly, with Brent oil futures increasing by 4.3% and the S&P-GSCI up 4.1%[3] Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth reduction since June 2024, with current rates at 2.00% for deposit facilities[27] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, with officials highlighting uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation risks[26] Inflation Expectations - U.S. inflation expectations have decreased, with 5-year expectations at 2.35% and 10-year expectations at 2.31%, both down 4 basis points from the previous week[14] - The ECB has revised down its CPI and GDP forecasts for 2025-2026, indicating a downward risk to economic growth[27]