2025年5月美国非农数据点评：非农就业仍稳，衰退担忧暂缓

Employment Data - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slowing from April but exceeding expectations of 126,000[4] - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from April[4] - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, the highest since October 2021, marking a continuous rise for four months[4] Wage and Hours - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year was 3.9%, better than the expected 3.7%[8] - The month-on-month wage growth improved to 0.4%, surpassing the forecast of 0.3%[8] - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.3 hours[8] Sector Performance - Job gains in the service sector were strong, with notable increases in leisure, hospitality, and warehousing, while manufacturing and government jobs weakened[7][17] - Professional and business services saw a significant decline, with a loss of 18,000 jobs[7][17] Federal Reserve Outlook - The non-weak payroll data supports a narrative of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, alleviating recession fears[19] - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the short term due to stable employment and unclear inflation risks[19]