策略日报：逼近前高-20250609

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows short-term rates stable while long-term rates are rising, with expectations of a volatile mode for government bond futures due to fluctuating market sentiment amid trade disputes [16] - The A-share market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3400 points and the ChiNext Index rising over 1%. The total trading volume reached 1.31 trillion, an increase of 0.14 trillion from the previous day, with over 4100 stocks rising. The market is expected to enter a volatile range with rotation among technology, dividend, and consumer sectors [20][23] - The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones rise by 1.05%, Nasdaq by 1.2%, and S&P 500 by 1.03%. The narrative of recession may become a focal point again as long-term U.S. Treasury yields rise, suggesting a potential buying opportunity when volatility increases [25] Group 2: Important Policies and News - Domestic policies include the removal of household registration restrictions for participating in social insurance at the place of employment, aimed at enhancing social security fairness and improving public services [40] - The retail market for new energy passenger vehicles in May reached 1.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, with a cumulative retail of 4.351 million units from January to May, reflecting a growth of 34.1% [40] - The total value of goods trade in China for the first five months of the year was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a sustained growth trend [40] Group 3: Currency Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1834, a decrease of 11 basis points from the previous day. The RMB is expected to appreciate significantly due to favorable impacts from U.S.-China trade relations, with a potential rise to around 7.1 [29][30] Group 4: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.07%, with sectors like live pigs, corn, and building materials leading gains, while coal, chemicals, and steel sectors declined. The overall technical structure remains bearish, suggesting a cautious approach [34]