现房销售的政策路径与潜在影响

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The focus on ensuring the delivery of homes has made the sale of completed properties a key task, leading to accelerated promotion of this sales model in 2023. Central and local governments are progressively implementing pilot programs for completed property sales, with a high likelihood of gradual implementation and supportive policies [2][7] - The transition to completed property sales is expected to decrease project turnover rates and pressure profit margins, resulting in a significant short-term decline in sales scale for real estate companies. Maintaining sales scale will require additional financing, leading to a substantial reduction in the industry's financial attributes and an increase in manufacturing attributes. This shift will demand higher capabilities in land assessment and product quality from companies, benefiting those with the ability to generate excess cash flow and potentially increasing industry concentration [10] Policy Path - The policy path for completed property sales has evolved from suppressing overheating to preventing risks. The transition has been marked by pilot programs in various cities since 2014, which were largely paused except for Hainan. With the emphasis on ensuring home delivery, completed property sales are being accelerated again in 2023, with conditions set for their implementation [7][21] Project Analysis - Transitioning from pre-sale to completed sale models can significantly impact financial metrics. For instance, net profit margins may drop from 11.4% to 8.6%, and the internal rate of return (IRR) could decrease from 17.3% to 6.4%. The time to achieve positive cash flow may extend from 20 months to 34 months under the completed sales model [8][9] - The impact of completed sales is less severe in scenarios with higher land-to-value ratios or stricter pre-sale conditions. For example, if the land-to-value ratio increases from 1.8 to 2.0, the net profit margin and IRR would be less affected [9][10] Potential Impacts - The implementation of completed property sales is expected to lead to a decline in sales scale for real estate companies, with new land acquisitions unable to generate supply, relying instead on historical inventory. This will necessitate more financing to maintain sales levels in the medium to long term. Cities with lower inventory levels will be more affected, while those with higher inventory may transition more smoothly [10]