中美经贸磋商机制会议在英国伦敦举行

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic price level in China remains low, with increasing pressure on both exports and imports. The bond market is fundamentally bullish, and long - term bond prices are expected to rise. The stock index futures market should be evenly allocated, and caution is advised when chasing high in the US stock index futures market. [14][20][23] - In the commodity market, the oil and fat market is expected to be volatile, and the cotton market is cautiously optimistic. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term. The double - coke market should be treated as a short - term rebound, and caution is needed when chasing high. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile in the short term. For non - ferrous metals, different strategies should be adopted according to different metal varieties. In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends, such as low - level volatility in liquefied petroleum gas, weakening of short - term rebound momentum in crude oil, etc. [27][32][39][41][46] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's May export and import data were lower than expected, and inflation data were basically in line with expectations. The central bank conducted 1738 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1738 billion yuan. [12][13][14] - The domestic price level remains low, and the pressure on exports and imports is increasing. The bond market is fundamentally bullish, and it is expected that incremental monetary policies will be introduced in Q3. It is recommended to take a bullish approach. [14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council held a special learning meeting, emphasizing the promotion of the integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation through the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued a document to improve people's livelihood. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. [16][17][19] - It is recommended to make a balanced allocation. [20] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Amazon plans to invest an additional $10 billion in Pennsylvania, USA. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. [21][22] - The market is waiting for the progress of China - US trade negotiations. It is not recommended to chase high as the US stock market has not escaped the volatile market. [23] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of June 6, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in major regions decreased, while the soybean oil and palm oil inventories increased. The international market is waiting for the US biofuel policy and the MPOB May report. [24][25][27] - It is recommended to wait for the release of the MPOB report data. [28] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first quarter of 2025, the import of cotton - made clothing in the US increased significantly. From January to May 2025, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 1%. In May, the national cotton commercial inventory continued to decline. [29][30][31] - The textile off - season atmosphere is strong, and the upward movement of the cotton market is restricted. However, considering the possible tight supply in the later period, a cautious and slightly optimistic view is taken. It is necessary to pay attention to China - US trade negotiations and the news of sliding - scale import quotas. [32] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The prices of starch sugar showed mixed trends. It is expected that the substitution between cassava starch and corn starch will enter a bottom - oscillating period, and the开机 rate of starch sugar is expected to increase with the peak - season demand. [33] - CS07 - C07 is expected to remain in low - level oscillation, and CS09 - C09 may be repaired, but there are uncertainties in regional price differences. [33] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat market price showed a weak oscillation, and the corn spot price rose slightly, driving the futures price to rise slightly. [34] - Corn is in a critical period for verifying the balance sheet. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 07 contract before the main contract switch, and adopt a bearish approach for new - season contracts after 09. [35] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Pakistan launched an anti - circumvention investigation on cold - rolled steel sheets from China. In May, China's steel exports and automobile exports remained at a high level, but the steel exports showed a marginal decline from late May to June. [36][38][39] - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term. It is recommended to take an oscillating approach in the short term and use spot hedging on rebounds. [39][40] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is under pressure, with overall supply remaining loose. The double - coke market rebounded recently, but the spot market is still weak. The supply side is shrinking. [41] - The double - coke fundamentals have not changed significantly in the short term. It is recommended to treat it as a short - term rebound, pay attention to the changes in industrial products, and be cautious when chasing high. It is advisable to wait and see. [41] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of June decreased compared with last year. The US soybean good - rate was in line with expectations. China's soybean imports in May reached a record high, and the oil mill's soybean meal inventory continued to rise. [42][43][45] - It is expected that the futures price will be oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US weather and China - US relations. [46] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Domestic silicon wafer prices declined slightly, mainly due to weak demand and lower prices of downstream terminal batteries. There were many negative rumors in the market, but the fundamentals in June were bearish. The silicon material factory is expected to reduce inventory by about 10,000 tons in June. [47][48] - It is recommended to take a short - term bearish and long - term bullish approach, with attention to position management. Pay attention to whether leading enterprises can jointly reduce production to support prices. [49] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project of Xingfa entered the main - structure construction stage. The disk price rose due to rumors but was later refuted. Sichuan entered the wet season, and some silicon factories resumed production. The demand side showed no obvious improvement. [50] - The disk price is close to breaking through the industry's cash cost line. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises. [51] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Dang Sheng Technology successfully developed a high - nickel solid - state single - crystal cathode material. The LME nickel inventory decreased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt increased. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines rose, while that in Indonesia remained stable. [52][53] - It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side disk and consider selling put options at low prices. In the medium term, pay attention to shorting opportunities after Q3. [53] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - US lithium - ion battery imports increased by 60% in April. Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China in May were lower than expected, and the inventory accumulation pressure in June was significantly relieved. [54] - It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds. [55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the central environmental protection inspection team entered Ningxia, delaying the resumption of production of a large - scale recycled lead smelter. The lead ingot inventory in five regions increased. [56][57][58] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the medium term, focusing on the support level around 16,500 yuan. [58] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the zinc ingot inventory in seven regions increased. The zinc price dropped significantly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to be realized. [59][60] - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short term and pay attention to short - selling option opportunities. In terms of arbitrage, wait and see for the time being, and maintain a long - term positive arbitrage strategy between domestic and foreign markets. [60] 3.3 Energy and Chemical News and Comments 3.3.1 Energy Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some terminals in the US Gulf had shipping difficulties, and the spot price in East China was stable. The supply - side expectation has improved, and the further decline in spot prices may be limited. [61][62][63] - It is expected that the price will remain in low - level oscillation with insufficient upward momentum. [63] 3.3.2 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Iran rejected the US proposal on the Iran nuclear deal. China's crude oil imports in May decreased month - on - month, and refineries entered the de - stocking stage. [64][65] - The short - term rebound momentum is weakening. [66] 3.3.3 Energy Chemical (PX) - The PX price rose and then declined. The supply - side load increased marginally, and the downstream polyester demand was seasonally weak. In the short term, the price may oscillate and adjust, but in the long term, the profit has the potential to repair. [67][68] - The short - term price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the medium - term profit has the potential to repair. [69] 3.3.4 Energy Chemical (PTA) - There are few future maintenance plans for PTA, and the polyester load is decreasing due to the seasonal off - season. The inventory is still being depleted, and the spot basis is strong but lacks further upward momentum. [70][71] - The short - term price faces upward pressure and is expected to oscillate. In the long term, consider going long at low prices. [71] 3.3.5 Energy Chemical (Caustic Soda) - The liquid caustic soda price in Shandong decreased locally. The supply decreased due to some enterprises' maintenance, and the demand weakened. [72][73] - The overall decline of commodities drives the 09 contract of caustic soda down, but the large discount on the 09 disk will limit the downward space. [74] 3.3.6 Energy Chemical (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable, with slight adjustments in some regions. The futures price oscillated upward. [74] - It is expected that the disk will oscillate as the fundamental changes in the pulp market are limited and the macro - economic recovery has temporarily ended. [76] 3.3.7 Energy Chemical (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder spot market was slightly adjusted. The futures price oscillated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. [77] - It is expected that the disk will oscillate weakly as the PVC fundamentals change little and the macro - economic sentiment recovery has ended. [77] 3.3.8 Energy Chemical (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory increased slightly. The rain in East China affected the demand, but the refinery capacity utilization rate increased, and the overall demand was still stable. [78][79][80] - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate upward. [81] 3.3.9 Energy Chemical (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea decreased, and the spot market was weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was rational. [82][83] - The urea market is weakly operating recently. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price center may move down. The 09 contract still has some gaming properties. [84] 3.3.10 Energy Chemical (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. The disk price oscillated strongly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be weak. [85] - The styrene market is expected to oscillate recently. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation of pure benzene and the operation of satellite chemical plants and China - US negotiations. [86][87] 3.3.11 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories was mostly stable. The polyester raw material price decreased, and the market transaction was average. An East China polyester bottle - chip device restarted. [88][89][90] - The short - term processing fee is expected to remain at a low level. In June, some large factories have production - reduction plans. It is recommended to go long on the bottle - chip processing fee at low prices. [90] 3.3.12 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased. The spot price was weakly sorted, and the downstream demand was average. [91] - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term as the inventory of soda ash manufacturers and the social inventory are both high, and the cost has decreased. [92] 3.3.13 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The futures price increased slightly, and the fundamentals changed little. The spot price is expected to be weakly stable. [93] - The glass demand will decline seasonally, and the supply will remain stable in the short term. The spot price may decline, and the disk price may be affected by market sentiment. [93]